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Offseason with Cidolfus: The 2018 Season in Review
The 2018 Season in Review
We want to win on a sustainable basis--I can’t tell you what year that is going to be--but we’re going to do what it takes to build the organization piece by piece, so that we have the right players that will be here to build that winning tradition, or bring it back.- Stephen Ross
For the first time since Stephen Ross has taken ownership of the Miami Dolphins, the team appears to be heading openly into a complete rebuild. It’s a new philosophy for our ownership, and the front office is changing pretty dramatically to accommodate the change. Say what you will about Ross’s decision to make Chris Grier the mastermind of this rebuild, the one undeniably positive takeaway from the change is the consolidation and clarification of our front office’s power structure. Part of what makes it so hard to judge whether Grier is the right man to lead the organization through this process is that it’s been difficult to parse where his influence over previous personnel decisions begins and ends. Since Ross took over the Dolphins, our front office configuration has been unorthodox, at least from the outside looking in. As far as we can tell, that power structure has often involved an ill-defined triumvirate of duties between the likes of Joe Philbin, Jeff Ireland (and later Dennis Hickey), and Dawn Aponte or after that Adam Gase, Chris Grier, and Mike Tannenbaum. Obviously, it hasn’t worked.
If nothing else, moving forward we know who’s primarily responsible for this team’s vision. It’s not entirely the clean break some of us might have hoped for, but the organizational clarity allows the team to move forward with unity of purpose. It’s with this in mind, at this time of change for the organization, that I thought it appropriate to revive my offseason review series which petered out the last time I tried to formalize it. Hopefully, like the new Miami Dolphins rebuild, this time around works out better.
My goal is to post these once a week through the end of the postseason in lieu of the Dolphins playing each weekend. Below, I’m laying out my tentative planned structure. This may change, but we’ll see where this goes. As always, this series will be primarily geared towards team-building with a focus on contract management under the salary cap. I don’t pretend to be any great evaluator of NFL talent and instead rely pretty heavily on other sources for that type of analysis. So, without further adieu, let’s kick off The Offseason with Cidolfus II: Electric Boogaloo.
- Wildcard Round Weekend: The 2018 Season in Review
- Divisional Round Weekend: Potential and Expected Salary Cap Casualties and Positions of Need
- Conference Championship Weekend: Rebuilding the Offense
- Pro Bowl Weekend: Rebuilding the Defense
And you may ask yourself, “Well… how did I get here?”The last time I started this series, I started my 2016 review with a statement that I harped on an awful lot during the following offseason, especially as we started to make some moves that made me uncomfortable, to say the least.
We need to be careful not to become the 2016 New York Jets.Guys, we became the 2016 New York Jets. I cautioned that our 2016 campaign was eerily similar to the 2015 Jets campaign and that we should look to avoid some of the same pitfalls they made following Bowles’s rookie coaching season: namely that we should not buy into the hype of our own 10-6 season under Adam Gase against one of the weakest strength of schedules in the NFL.
Unfortunately, that’s exactly what we did. The moves had Tannenbaum’s fingerprints all over them: doubling down on the current roster instead of looking to improve and innovate in a bid to recapture the magic without understanding that the shelf life of a roster composition in the NFL isn’t very long and that part of what made 2016 happen in the first place was the very players we ended up re-signing were punching above their pay grade on the field. Consequently, a lot of the players who provided great value in 2016 were much less of a bargain in 2017.
Case in point, Andre Branch played in 2016 on a cap figure of $2.7 million (approximately 1.7% of the cap that year). He played 67.1% of the snaps, leading all defensive ends on the roster by a substantial amount (nearly 200 snaps more than Cameron Wake, who was second among the positional group). He logged 7 sacks, 7 hits, and 34 hurries as well as 26 tackles for no gain or a loss. In 2017, that number under his new contract increased to $5 million (3% of that year’s cap). His snap counts decreased dramatically (down 38%, nearly 200 snaps from the previous season). His performance also declined. At double the cost he had about half the production: 4 sacks, 5 hits, 22 hurries, and 10 tackles for no gain or a loss. This past season, as his salary ballooned to $10 million, his production declined again. He played another 100 snaps fewer than the previous year and his production declined again. Two sacks, 3 hits, 18 hurries, and 12 tackles for a loss or no gain.
It’s easy to pick on Branch. He’s easily the worst signing that still remains on our roster, but he’s only the worst example of a recurring problem. After that 2016 offseason we overpaid for a other free agents as well. I’ll be the first to admit that I actively campaigned re-signing most of these guys. I never expected that any of them would get the kind of contracts that they ended up getting, though.
We offered Kiko Alonso a long-term contract that pays him top ten among 4-3 outside linebackers by annual average even though his best production was inside. We did this even though we had the opportunity to continue to test drive him under a tender as a restricted free agent. While Kiko has been productive (although controversial) since, the cap commitment and then immediate decision to move him out of position and constantly force him into coverage (an obvious weakness) remains baffling. Given that we went on to experiment with Alonso on the weak side, it’s inexcusable that we didn’t do that experimentation under the readily-available RFA tender before committing long-term.
About the only move that has looked remotely good has been Kenny Stills’s contract, but his deal exhibits same fault as the others: an abnormally high percentage of guarantees. Over 50% of Stills’s contract was guaranteed at signing, which is uncommon for non-rookie multi-year deals. The same is true of many free agents we locked up over the past two seasons: Kiko Alonso, Andre Branch, Josh Sitton, and Albert Wilson also all received more than 50% of their entire contracts guaranteed. Generally speaking, high guarantees should help offset total contract cost, but despite having nearly 70% of his contract guaranteed at signing, Branch still cost the Dolphins $10 million last year. Tannenbaum apparently used guaranteed money as a lure in free agency to remain competitive with other offers, but it’s a strategy that has rarely worked out for us.
On top of overpaying to retain our own talent, we went and pursued the washed up remains of Julius Thomas because of his connections to Gase on the hopes that he could work his magic on an aging veteran who hadn’t shown his magic since leaving Peyton Manning and the Broncos. We all know how that turned out. We traded for T.J. McDonald and then, before even playing a snap, extended him to a four-year deal. Fortunately, the contract isn’t awful. We can walk away with minimal impact in 2020, but in the interim, especially after drafting Minkah Fitzpatrick, it’s caused our coaching staff to shuffle our safeties around and play one of our best players out of position.
To top it all off, when Ryan Tannehill re-injured his knee shortly before the season, our front office doubled down again on the success of the previous season and spent $10 million to bring in Jay Cutler, mortgaging our future on the off chance that a quarterback who had finished the previous year on injured reserve, who had spent the entire offseason preparing for the broadcast booth, could bring us to a ceiling of what, exactly? A second consecutive wildcard round exit?
Into the blue again, after the money’s gone…We learned some lessons from 2017, at least. Our roster moves in 2018, for the most part, reflected a shift away from the previous strategy of throwing guaranteed money at players. Aside from Albert Wilson’s contract, we committed basically no long-term salary to free agents from other teams. Unfortunately, aside from Wilson’s contract and Frank Gore’s veteran minimum deal, none of the moves we made appear to have been beneficial.
We restructured both Ryan Tannehill and Reshad Jones to free up cap space to make such acquisitions as Robert Quinn, Josh Sitton, and Danny Amendola, none of whom are likely to have much of a future with the Dolphins beyond this season. We cut Suh and are still dealing with the dead cap ramifications of his contract in 2019 (which is not to say I think keeping him would have been the better move).
This season was a difficult one. The highs were pretty high (the 3-0 start, the Miami Miracle), but were always balanced by equally dismal lows. I’ll admit to vacillating wildly week-to-week about where I saw the future of this team. I remember after week six I was on the phone with my old man passionately advocating for what exactly what we’re doing now: blowing it up and starting over. But then, after Tannehill’s return where our offense finally started clicking (even though the late loss to the Colts hurts) through the Miami Miracle, I thought we had a chance to finish the season strong, maybe even eke into the playoffs with some luck. I began to hope that the team could be better with some small adjustments and key players returning from injury in 2019.
We all know how that ended, and what we’re left with is a disappointing 7-9 record, the most dead money on the books for 2019, and the sixth-least salary cap space available (for the record, only two current playoff teams have more salary cap committed in 2019 than the Dolphins).
Same as it ever was, same as it ever was…And so at the end of the Tannenbaum and Gase era for the Miami Dolphins, we find the team headed into a full-on rebuild in which the owner is publicly encouraging long-term planning, discouraging signings of older players, and indicating a willingness to accept poor performance in the short term for sustainable performance in the long term. By a few reports, anyone is up for sale at the right price. In order to break out of our holding pattern of consistent mediocrity, the Dolphins will embrace a strategy of stripping the team down to its bare parts.
Fortunately, based on our current roster construction, trimming the fat is the easy part of the rebuild. Because we already jettisoned Ndamukong Suh’s contract and we did not re-sign Landry, the Dolphins have only three non-rookie contracts with meaningful dead money beyond the 2019 season: Albert Wilson, Reshad Jones, and Bobby McCain. While I’ll leave diving deeper into the numbers until next week’s post, suffice it to say that this gives us a great deal of flexibility in the short-term, which is extremely favorable to a team looking to rebuild from the ground up.
So where do we go from here? Let’s look at our projected depth chart of players currently signed through the 2019 season.
Next week, we’ll take a more intensive look at our salary cap, which players are obvious cuts, who might be on the bubble, and trades we might pursue to get out of some of our other contracts as we look ahead to a dramatic shift in team-building strategy.
CN Wiki's tier list for Operation Siren Ver.1 (with translated explanations plus additional info I added)
Not sure which flair I should put on so forgive me if this is wrong.submitted by BLHXsuperman to AzureLane
Since I got some positive review for my last translation of the tier list and I have some more free time to burn, so I decided to translate the new tier list specified for Operation Siren by CN wiki. Once again, although I am from Hong Kong and fluent in both English and Chinese, I am actually not familiar with the terminologies and wording for EN server so bear with me if you see some unusual terminologies.
Once again, this tier list is created by the CN wiki group especially 玄虚小圣 (https://www.bilibili.com/read/cv7785719) , he thanked the wiki group members like 臧贺 片云 氧化钙 井号 三番 坐看云起 虽来 who are in the CN test server for testing, correction and opinions.
I suck at PS so I don’t really work to make a translated version of the list itself, but I’ll try to accommodate by explaining the key things shown on the list other than translating the author’s comment.
The meta and mechanics in Operation Siren is different from the normal PVE maps we are used to, so it may be helpful to check out info across the forum about operation siren to understand better about this tier list, I’ll try to explain some of the basics here and you could also ask questions here, I’ll try to answer some of them but it may take time for me to response and I may not be free all the time.
In addition, everything in the test server right now are SUBJECT TO CHANGE, therefore this list is not finalized as well and could very well see massive changes in the future as the developers continue to update the test server on operation siren (although nothing much have changed for the past several weeks now). So, this tier list is more of giving the community a preliminary look on what to expect for ship’s usefulness in operation siren right now.
Some basics (I included these for people that have little to no knowledge on operation siren)
- Operation Siren allows player to use up to four fleet, so we can specialize each fleet for different purposes (ie. For general boss battle, AA fleet for carrier boss, non-boss battles etc.). So we actually need several core for the fleet, which is why you’ll see several ships will be listed as the same tier level even though you may think some will be stronger than others.
- Fleet 1,2and 3 be the main fleet each serving different purposes while the 4th fleet serve as backup/leveling/cross fleet buff purposes.
- Gold T0 would be the core of the 3 main fleets. T0 have irreplaceable key roles in a fleet, T0.5 are strong enough to be used commonly in main fleets (difference between T0 and T0.5 is whether their role can be replaced or not). T1 are reserves for the 4th fleet and may be put in a main fleet if they have special utility. T2 are the lower end substitute for main fleets. T3 are generally ships that have T2 or above rating for normal maps but most probably won’t be used due to not fitting the meta here and/or not competitive enough by having too much better replacement.
- This tier list is mainly for clearing the map while having a low adaptation value (not sure what would be a official English term for this so I just translate it directly), you can spend time to raise you adaptation value which in return lowers the difficulty of the map. It is for high level commanders that have well trained fleet that wants a challenge and not waste a bunch of time to lower the difficulty. So for the casuals, don’t worry, not having XXX doesn’t mean you can’t clear this map, there are still ways for casuals and/or people that missed certain OP ship to lower the difficulty and clear the maps even if you don’t have the top tier comp.
- Adaptation value is one of the core mechanics of Operation siren, these are values that influence the performance of your fleet, there are three types of values atm, one influencing damage you deal, one for the effectiveness of your heals and one influencing damage you take. You need to have the number of adaptation value to be above the enemy fleet’s value (value changes depending on the map difficulty and enemy you face), and you can get some buffs for your fleet. Alternatively you’ll get debuffs on your fleet (like reduced healing effects, reduced damage, increased damage taken etc.) it somewhat works like air superiority system.
- Elite enemies (like the one you find in normal events, you see multiple of these),bosses and even three star main fleet enemies (these have a smaller weaker pool of effects they can roll) have random “modularization” that contains different effects on the the enemy fleet and/or the boss, so for example increase the enemy flagship’s reload (or AA) value by 50%, increase the barrage salvo damage by enemy flagship by 100%, every 20s enemy flagship creates a shield that lowers the critical chance of our attack by 100%, creates a shield shield that reduce the first 15 attack to 1 damage for enemy flagship every 15s etc. Essentially it works similar to those elites/boss traits for Diablo/POE.
- One important thing about operation siren is that airspace control value and air superiority really isn’t a thing anymore (at least for this version we have in test server). This means that meta really shifts back to battleship dominance meta like we had before air superiority system appeared and prior to W13 (and/or W12) because of the strong aviation damage reduction we have. Additionally, Operation Siren requires damage against all armor types, which means carriers, which are mainly DPS source for heavy armor enemies only would be much less versatile than battleships. In short, most carriers except the one that has utility or Shinano since she has cross fleet barrage and OP enough to stay somewhat relevant are much less competitive than BBs (also means that you really need to be as OP as a UR to even be somewhat relevant as a carrier). Also, since there are no PR CV right now, CVs also don't get the added bonus of Siren Killer for PR BBs, which also didn't help.
Some people seem to be upset about not able to use carriers. To be honest, you can certainly use carriers as you wish, you can use carriers for support and against heavy armored Siren boss, it is just that we have some many power crept ships in the backline especially for BBs nowadays that we are just stacked with BBs to squeeze into our fleet. This is a list about who has the best competitive advantage to get a role into the main fleet, you can certainly choose to use a sub-optimal choice and still clear it, Azur Lane has always been a casual game that you can do most thing as you desired and still clear the game, it really isn't the hardest of all type of game. This is really just for people who like to drill deep and look to create a top tier comp that'll allow them clear the map most effectively and without using up much time. Just like you can certainly still use an all-BB comp in 13-4, it may not be optimal, it may require you to take time and get it to green danger level and such, but you'll definitely to be able to do it at the end of the day.
- Another thing is that also go against carriers is that there are two unique modularization for bosses, one has the effect to damage your own fleet whenever your fleet heals, another one being whenever our fleet heals, transfer 100% the heal amount towards the enemy flagship. Luckily, these types of effects only persist when the enemy boss exist on the battle, so before she spawns and after she is dead, the effect is gone. This along with the release of a new type of item called emergence repair kit (which repairs a ships outside of battle, kind of like the ones front repair ship but to a stronger extent but on one member), and you get quite a lot of these, so it makes the need for healers much less. Additionally, you fight through a lot of battles in operation siren, you'll fight through several Elite type"bosses" (like the one you are used to in events) on the way, these also contains the anti-healer effect modularization.
- You can actually change fleet comps and equipment even after you entering the map, so technically you don’t need 4 sets of the strongest equipment, but there is a cost in movement points for changing ships (and perhaps patience for equipment lol).
- Overall Operation Siren’s difficulty varies according to your Adaptation value, it outweighs even the bonus from level differences, so for players that don’t have enough level 120 ships, spending time to get high adaptation value would be a must. Since there are no cost in oil in this mode, you should just use your strongest golden fleet if possible. The normal battles are pretty easy for end-game players, with the exception of Siren strongholds which contains enemies that are all above level 120 and bosses are level 124. The bosses vary between different armor type and damage type and most are about the same difficulty as 13-4 or perhaps slightly stronger. Players will need to create specialized fleet against different type of enemies.
Main comment section for the tier list by the list’s author
1. DPS support
Helena is the absolute core here, there are no chance for any other support to show up. Since the enemies’ evasion are not high, Aurora’s ability is less than Chapayev (both are better off with just putting some good anti-light dps like Saint Louis or Azuma instead). Casablanc falls off since carriers in general are bad.
2. Heal/survivability support
Due to the effect of adaptation value and the damage on heal/counter heal for enemies, every healer other than Perseus are pretty useless. Perseus is the only healer that works here thanks to her 2 rounds of preloaded heals which heals before the boss spawn and since she takes off so slowly for the 3rd round that by the time she takes off, the boss would probably be dead.
Jeanne D’Arc ‘s survivability support is also extremely crucial here, essential in keeping Helena alive and/or increasing your core fleet’s survivability. Illustrious and Eldridge are much worse substitute for Jeanne, but the differences are massive so only T2 for them.
3. Torp crit ships
Traditional torp comp have no place here, those that are relevant still have different utilities (like Ibuki’s preloaded torps for elites, Tanikaze’s buff on SS)
Both Kitakaze and Tashkent are only treated as normal DPS here, their competitive edge in the main fleet are not high. Kitakaze have survivability problem while Tashkent just has too much competitors on the anti-light armor specialization role.
5. Light Cruisers
The good old Yat Sen+ Hai(s) comp is very good here as a back-up option since they are still as tanky as ever. However if you don’t lack much strong enough ships for other roles you don’t really need this type of pure tank comp, so they are only T0.5 here. San Diego still good as anti-air core and support, Noshiro is light-armored tank with torp damage reduction, Mainz is medium armored tank with shield that works still and Seattle is for good survivability third front line spot and decent AA/anti-sea dps.
6. Heavy/super Cruisers
Azuma without VH armor plating is only T2 as a normal medium-armored tank (even worse than like Portland), but if you use the armor plating on her and turn her into heavy armor, she immediately becomes the best tank by far due to the poor damage modifiers the enemies have against heavy armor.
The others are pretty much as usual with Chesire being the AA tank core, Saint Louis as the anti-light killer (in Richelieu’s fleet), Drake for best dps across all armor type and Roon a well-rounded medium-armor shield tank with preloaded shield (max fate). Worth noting that Baltimore falls because EU carriers along with all other carriers fades out, so she doesn’t fit the meta well, but she still one of the highest damage against medium-armored enemies i just behind Drake and provide armor break, so she may make it in a main fleet under the right condition.
The core and flagship for the 1st 2nd and 3rd main fleets would be FDG, Richelieu and Monarch. While Howe is not a flagship, but her role is basically “whichever fleet has Howe in would be the primary core fleet”, pretty much explains her importance as the best support dps. Amagi is good in this meta because she enhances the survivability of the backline while having a shortened first salvo if you use a 4 IJN comp which acts somewhat like preloaded salvo from French BBs, making her useful in against Sirens. While DoY is still an excellent utility dps on the sides (slow+buff). The PR battleships are also mostly decent because of the Siren Killer skill.
If it wasn’t for Shinano, the carrier would be a ship type even worse than Destroyers, and Shinano only manages to redeem herself. While Perseus can be used in certain non-critical dps spot due to the double preloaded airstrikes (on top of her unique healing utility).
Can choose between triple U-boat comp and the “twin fish” (Albacore+Bluegill) comp. If the OP UK magnetic torp for SS that we see in operation siren currently actually gets implemented as it is, the dps potential between the the U-boat comp and the “twin fish“ comp would be reduced to less than 10%, so either one would work more or less.
101/522 are lower-end substitute for the U-boat comps, while Aqua, I-13 and I-168 are fillers for the flagship role in the “twin fish” comp. Overall submarines in general in the content of Operation Siren are actually EX tier, basically they are irreplaceable and the utmost important ship type (pretty much more important to have than having a t0 over a t2 for others). If you use SS often normally, you’ll probably figure this out already but SS does massive damage in short time battles and especially battles where boss spawn right from the beginning and thus lower the pressure for you frontline, which is pretty much the meta in Operation Siren. You can clear any Siren boss node right away with a core fleet+ SS (others may require several attempts).
Last but not least, I actually don’t just directly translate what’s on the tier list page and the author’s comment, I actually summarize and add in many different information that are scattered across different guides and “tweet equivalent posts in Bilibili” from members of the wiki group that are in the test server. Since it is only a test server right now with many things subject to change, that aren’t much detail summaries on the findings in Operation Siren, and even the author of this list haven’t gone into much detail for this list (he kinda assume people that read this are already following on news and updates from the CN test server community). So it did took me quite some time to dig through different content and videos to supplement some of those missing info that I feel like normal people may not be aware of, so if you like this preliminary look into the upcoming new mode for the game, give me an upvote would make me feel somewhat accomplished.
Thanks, that’s all.