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Ramblings 2019 March 1 - UFC 235: Jones vs Smith (Fantasy Analysis and Preview)
Bonus points on the line
- 2 for Choppa Jones vs Red Smith
- 2 for Choppa Usman vs Rey Woodley
- 0.5 Busta Askren def. Red Lawler
- 0.5 Weili J def. Tecia Green
- 1 Green Munhoz vs. 0.5 Flash Garbrandt
- 0.5 DX Magomedshapirov vs. 0.25 Donkey Stephens
- 0.25 Jean Cirkunov vs. 0.25 Flash Walker
- 0.25 Jean Stamann vs. 0.25 Donkey Perez
- Not sure if Red is buying the “hope”, but this should be a guaranteed +2 and finish for Jones with a sizeable strike differential.
- “Textbook” #1 pick from Choppa while the 205ers were slim picking for Red. Other guys on the board at the time included Corey Anderson, OSP, Jan, if you believed Rockhold is going to 205 like me (recent tweet saying he’s looking for May, June makes me feel a bit vindicated thought... please don’t match him up with Gustafsson (I have Gus))
- Can Smith reel off more LHW wins after a loss to Jones?
Choppa is back at it with 3.1 Usman vs. 3rd overall pick Tyron Woodley (ReyOrdonez)
- personally I feel a 3rd round pick (pretty much late second round) is decent value for a 9 fight win streak and guaranteed title shot.
- Usman isn’t as good a striker or submission grappler as anyone during Woodley’s title reign, but he is the best wrestler and even if they’re not the best punches, they will be there coupled with the shot (takedown threat). Both things Maia didn’t really have, and all the strikers (Lawler, Wonderboy and Till) definitely didn’t have the takedown threat
- Will Woodley be the first 1st round draft pick to fall? Who will get that much needed +2?
(u/redseven4) 9.14 Robbie Lawler vs. (bustatron) 2.7 Ben Askren
- Yet another back-to-back underdog pick for Red (Anthony Smith the other one)
- It sees a 7.7 difference in picks and could very well be an upset in the making
- Askren is an undefeated wrestling specialist but has never faced anyone of Lawler’s caliber and hasn’t fought since 2017! Not only that his best wins on his record are against Douglas Lima and Andrey Koreshkov in 2013, who at the time we’re still on the rise and not the level of fighter they are at today.
- However, Askren would likely be the favorite going into rematches with either of them today (not by much against Lima I think)
- But, Lawler also hasn’t fought since 2017, recovering from a serious injury
- This is a pick em’ in my book and this great value for a 9th round pick to take out a 2nd rounder. One crucial drawback of this bout, for me at least, was the fact even if Lawler won, Askren is unranked so no bonus points.
- Lawler is ranked 6 currently so that would be +0.5 with an Askren win and huge for the champion-less and welterweight heavy Bustatron team
- Like the Lawler-Askren match up, we have a big draft discrepancy with a 10.6 difference and Tecia/Green not getting any bonus points with a victory, despite fighting someone drafted much earlier
- The offensive-minded, high-paced Zhang would help to shut up any detractors proclaiming that this pick is a reach with girls like Maycee Barber, Nina Ansaroff and Claudia Gadelha still out there at the time
- But a 2-0 start and a vicious triangle to armbar victory over former #1 strawweight and a chance at +0.5 over the declining Tecia Torres may have been too good to pass up for Jmen
- The lack of bonus points and already having Tatiana Suarez delayed me, but Tecia was on my radar for quite some time. Round 16 is fantastic value.
- Tecia/Green vs Weili/Jmen represents the biggest draft pick difference at 10 rounds and 6 picks apart. Gall/Sanchez is second with 10 rounds and 3 picks apart
- After some discussion about how shit Cody Garbrandt is/was, the former bantamweight champion was taken in the 5th round
- With +1 available for Munhoz, he was taken 1.5 rounds later. A Garbrandt victory would bring +0.5 bonus points
- It’s important to note, this was one of the few fighters in the top 10 that diehard No Love hater TruthFenix, thought might not 100% “kill” Garbrandt
- Flash may be on edge by this fight after seeing his second round pick get subbed in round 1 ;p more on that later
(u/donkey-teef) 9.7 Jeremy Stephens vs. (dxp857) 3.2 Zabit Magomedsharipov
- Two draft picks that I think are pretty much exactly where they should be
- Stephens has KO power but has never been able to land it against the elite
- Zabit hasn’t fought anyone in the top 10 yet, but his abilities speak for themselves. Under the guise of showtime kicks and spinning shit is a comfortable, instinctual grappling game
- Zabit should be able to pick at Stephens from distance and close the distance with wrestling anytime he wants or is in some trouble....... or can Stephens make good on his word “Zabit won’t fucking move”
- +0.5 for Zabit and +0.25 for Stephens. A win over Stephens puts Zabit probably one top/+1.0 win away from a title shot (+2)
- This is DXP’s only fighter of the night, Donkey will have Alejandro Pérez a couple fights before
- The previously mentioned second round pick of Flash haha. Honestly, one of the biggest shocks of the draft. There were multiple categories of fighters to choose from:
- Current champs (Rose and Whittaker), immediate contenders (Usman, Gastelum and Smith), former champions that probably only needed one win to get another title shot depending on the champ (Stipe and Joanna), rising contenders with more appealing match ups/bonus point opportunities (Zabit, Costa, Yan, Sandhagen) and other guys like Dustin Poirer — to be fair I believe the news of him and Holloway for the interim LW title broke after Walker was already chosen
- He reminds me of Houston Alexander and Sokoudjou. A little history:
- Alexander stormed into the UFC with back to back KOs in less than 2 minutes. He fights two months later and loses.
- Sokoudjou has a similar story. He shocked the world in Pride with consecutive KOs over Lil Nog and Ricardo Arona two highly respected and credentialed fighters (also in 2007). He losses his next fight (albeit to rising undefeated future champ Lyoto Machida).
- 0.25 bonus points on the board for both guys. For a 12th round pick, 9.6 difference... Misha is tremendous value here.
- Can Walker be the one? Like how Conor ran through everyone at Feather? I guess that’s why we watch the fights not just talk about them!
- Another impressive Walker win would be great, dude seems like a star in the making, but Cirkunov could really make this ugly if not a mauling.
- Jesus I wrote so much I forgot if I added what round they were drafted in the title
- Showing my lack of regularly watching these last couple of years as I don’t know these two guys ha... but this league has really reignited me
- 0.25 bonus on the line for both fighters
- Donkey’s first fighter of the night. Jean has Stamann and Cirkunov
- A mid-draft match up with only a 1.5 difference. Normally (the last 2-3 years), I wouldn’t watch this fight lol. But I literally feel obligated as well as excited too now with the league. Thank You MMAGods you’ve shown me the way once again
- One of the latest draft picks! Literally only 5 fighters were chosen after Diego
- I wussed out in taking Diego (or anyone on this card for that matter, I just wanna be an observer for one event first haha without any added investment) cause seriously picking him and seeing him get put to sleep by a RNC in round 1 would suck, and I think that’s a very possible -uhm- possibility. (His precision is so precise.) Or some other beatdown, 1-sided fashion
- Diego/Clay Guida is one of the first “WARS” I had ever seen in any kind of fighting. But objectively I know he’s still a very good grappler and Gall shouldn’t be able to KO him on the feet
- Diego has been able to wrestle his way to a decision in his last two wins over Craig White and Marcin Held, but also has 3 first round KO losses in the last 3 years
- Gall on the other hand is sporting a very nice 4-1 UFC record, but one of those is CM Punk, another is Mike Jackson and another is Sage Northcutt.
- I’m nervous for this one
- 25th round heroes lets goooo
- this is Truth’s only fighter on the card. Flash has 4 fighters on the card and this will be his second fight of the night
Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Charles Byrd
- No one wanted to take a chance on the 21 year old middleweight, Edmen, who was finely crafted by the gentle words of encourage, Edmund. The first of many Edmund super duper pooper prospects to cum
- Goddamn Edmen is 21. Born in 1997. Fuck.
- What’s the oveunder on Edmen auction bids if he wins? $5? $10?
- A great mid-draft pick of Chiasson for Red, imo, to fill the lone women’s BW spot
- We saw Aldana go at 9.1, de Randamie at 8.11, Reneau 7.12, Vieira 7.7, Ladd 7.2 and of course the dark horse favorite unsung MVP, Yana (Yanaaaaaa, Archer reference-pun combo) at a shockingly late round 6.
- Its hard not to look at this match up and think the UFC has anything other than feeding someone to Chiasson in mind. With Chiasson making weight, I’m expecting her to win and one of the locks of the night
- Really impossible to predict who’s gonna take who (I had multiple fighters taken that I wanted, close to when I would pick), but instead of waiting, If Pasha could’ve took Juliana Pena in round 13 instead of Felice, he still would’ve had quite a few SWs to choose from like Kowalkiewicz, Esparza and Courtney Casey. Taking Macy Chiasson in round 11 before Red did in round 12, might have been good too.
- But again, it’s nearly impossible to predict these things and you can’t get everyone you want
- this fight has the distinction of being the latest combined round total! with 41.19 or 42.5 (mumbles math carry the 5 more mumbling)
- Jmen and Flash get to tangle in the FIRST EVER FANTASY MMA MATCH UP. WE MADE HISTORY MUDDAFUCKRS
- Jmen has Weili later in the night while Flash will have fighters throughout (TruthFenix’s Favorite Fighter’s favorite fighter Cody, Brazilian Johnny and the only legit fighter during the fight CM Punk Sweepstakes, Hey Mickey You’re So Fine)
Flashbandy: Garbrandt, Walker, Gall, Cifers
RedSeven4: Smith, Lawler, Chiasson
Get2thachoppa: Jones, Usman
Green49285: Torres, Munhoz
Jmenaguale: Zhang, Viana
Donkey-teef: Stephens, Perez
Jeanvaljean91: Cirkunov, Stamman
EJ and tranypanda7: None
It might be worth noting, EJ and I, both unanimously finished in the bottom half of Team Rankings lmao (EJ got unanimous double digits lol for those that submitted so far). So perhaps a sign for things to come...? With us being the only teams not to pick anyone at 235.
I’ll post the full survey results soon before 235 begins. I’ll have a summary and then also the verbatim submissions in the comments. Stay tuned for more (I stole that ending line from someone on YouTube).
late edit: just got another survey submission and it’s the first one that I’m not ranked in the bottom half! It was from unanimous double digit...uhmm... digiter. unanimous double digiter EJ though weooooo time for some Mike Russow style comebacks with the toys (yeah I just pulled an older reference when the Black Beast one would’ve been understood by more... really need to get a move on and find some time to watch MMA in chronological order from the 90s before shit keeps piling up and next you know it it’s 2045 and we have the first ever UFC lockout.
SurveyMonkey for the lazy/procrastinating/busy if you only do one thing, I ask that you fill this out seriously. it’s technically only 1 question.
edit 2: okay me and EJ got some ranks swinging back the other way now haha you would have to pick like hardy, yana, cm punk, mike jackson, montano, cruz etc to get a unanimous worst team
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