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Polling Megathread [11/04 - 11/05]
National Poll of Polls and Projections
Poll of PollsPoll of polls are averages of the latest national polls. Different sources differ in which polls they accept, and how long they keep them in their average, which accounts for the differences. They give a snapshot to what the polling aggregates say about the national race right now, to account for outliers or biases in individual polls.
We have included both the 4 way race (4 way), and head to head aggregates (H2H), as they are presented this way in most polls.
Aggregator | Clinton % | Trump % | Johnson % | Stein % | Net Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
RCP (4 way) | 45.0 | 42.7 | 4.8 | 2.1 | Clinton +2.3 |
RCP (H2H) | 46.6 | 44.8 | N/A | N/A | Clinton +1.8 |
PollsteHuffpo (4 way) | 45.7 | 40.2 | 5.1 | N/A | Clinton +5.5 |
PollsteHuffpo (H2H) | 48.2 | 42.7 | N/A | N/A | Clinton +5.5 |
Projections are data-driven models that try to make a prediction of a candidate's prospects on election day. They will incorporate polling data to give an estimate on how that will affect a candidate's chance of winning. Note: The percentages given are not popular vote margins, but the probability that a given candidate will win the presidency on election night.
Model | Clinton % | Trump % |
---|---|---|
Fivethirtyeight Polls Plus* | 64.1 | 35.8 |
Princeton Election Consortium** | 98 | 2 |
NYT Upshot | 85 | 15 |
Daily Kos Elections | 90 | 10 |
** Sam Wang's Princeton Election Consortium includes both a "random drift" and Bayesian projection. We have reproduced the "random drift" values in our table.
The NYT Upshot page has also helpfully included links to other projection models, including "prediction" sites. Predictwise is a Vegas betting site and reflects what current odds are for a Trump or Clinton win. Charlie Cook, Stu Rothenburg, and Larry Sabato are veteran political scientists who have their own projections for the outcome of the election based on experience, and insider information from the campaigns themselves.
Daily Presidential Polls
Below, we have collected the latest national and state polls. The head to head (H2H) and 4 way surveys are both included. We include the likely voter (LVs) numbers, when possible, in this list, but users are welcome to read the polling reports themselves for the matchups among registered voters (RVs).National Polls
Date Released/Pollster | Clinton % | Trump % | Johnson % | Stein % | Net Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
11/05, IBD/TIPP | 44 | 44 | 5 | 2 | Tied |
11/05, LA Times/USC | 43 | 48 | N/A | N/A | Trump +5 |
11/04, McClatchy/Marist | 44 | 43 | 6 | 2 | Clinton +1 |
11/04, Fox News | 45 | 43 | 5 | 2 | Clinton +2 |
11/04, Ipsos/Reuters | 44 | 37 | 6 | 2 | Clinton +7 |
11/04, ABC/WaPo | 47 | 43 | 5 | 2 | Clinton +4 |
11/04, Rasmussen | 44 | 44 | 4 | 1 | Tied |
Date Released/Pollster | State | Clinton % | Trump % | Johnson % | Stein % | Net Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11/04, Data Orbital | Arizona | 39 | 47 | 4 | 1 | Trump +8 |
11/05, Breitbart/Gravis | Colorado | 40 | 40 | 7 | 4 | Tied |
11/04, PPP (D) | Colorado | 48 | 43 | 4 | 2 | Clinton +5 |
11/04, Keating Res. (D) | Colorado | 43 | 38 | 7 | 2 | Clinton +5 |
11/04, Trafalgar (R)* | Colorado | 45 | 44 | 5 | 4 | Clinton +1 |
11/04, Landmark | Georgia | 46 | 48 | 4 | N/A | Trump +2 |
11/04, Opinion Savvy | Georgia | 45 | 49 | 4 | N/A | Trump +4 |
11/04, Howey/POS | Indiana | 37 | 48 | 9 | N/A | Trump +11 |
11/04, Breitbart/Gravis | Indiana | 39 | 49 | 5 | N/A | Trump +10 |
11/05, Loras College | Iowa | 44 | 43 | 3 | 3 | Clinton +1 |
11/05, DMSelzer | Iowa | 39 | 46 | 6 | 1 | Trump +7 |
11/04, Emerson* | Iowa | 41 | 44 | 5 | 4 | Trump +3 |
11/04, Ft. Hays St. U. | Kansas | 34 | 58 | N/A | N/A | Trump +24 |
11/04, Western NE U. | Massachusetts | 56 | 26 | 8 | 3 | Clinton +30 |
11/04, FreeP/Epic-MRA | Michigan | 42 | 38 | 5 | N/A | Clinton +4 |
11/04, PPP (D) | Michigan | 46 | 41 | 6 | 2 | Clinton +5 |
11/04, Daily CalleStrat. Nat. | Michigan | 44 | 44 | 4 | 3 | Tied |
11/04, PPP (D)*** | Missouri | 41 | 52 | N/A | N/A | Trump +11 |
11/04, PPP (D)*** | Nevada | 48 | 45 | N/A | N/A | Clinton +3 |
11/04, PPP (D)*** | New Hampshire | 48 | 43 | N/A | N/A | Clinton +5 |
11/04, Breitbart/Gravis | New Hampshire | 41 | 43 | 7 | 2 | Trump +2 |
11/04, Stockton College | New Jersey | 51 | 40 | 3 | 1 | Clinton +11 |
11/04, Zia Poll | New Mexico | 46 | 43 | 7 | 1 | Clinton +3 |
11/04, PPP (D)*** | North Carolina | 49 | 47 | N/A | N/A | Clinton +2 |
11/05, Muhlenberg College | Pennsylvania | 44 | 40 | 7 | 2 | Clinton +4 |
11/05, Breitbart/Gravis | Pennsylvania | 47 | 45 | 2 | 2 | Clinton +2 |
11/04, PPP (D)*** | Pennsylvania | 48 | 44 | N/A | N/A | Clinton +4 |
11/04, Harper (R) | Pennsylvania | 46 | 46 | 2 | 1 | Tied |
11/04, Breitbart/Gravis** | Utah | 29 | 35 | 3 | 1 | Trump +6 |
11/04, Y2 Analytics** | Utah | 24 | 33 | 5 | 3 | Trump +5 |
11/04, PPP (D) | Virginia | 48 | 43 | 4 | 1 | Clinton +5 |
11/04, Roanoke College | Virginia | 45 | 38 | 5 | 2 | Clinton +7 |
11/04, SUSA | Washington | 50 | 38 | 4 | 2 | Clinton +12 |
11/04, PPP (D)*** | Wisconsin | 48 | 41 | N/A | N/A | Clinton +7 |
11/04, Loras College | Wisconsin | 44 | 38 | 7 | 2 | Clinton +6 |
*Emerson College and Trafalgar only polls landlines. Standard pollster practice is to include as much as a 45% cell phone supplement or internet panel to account for changes in the electorate.
**In Gravis' final Utah poll, Evan McMullin comes in third, receiving 24% of the vote. In Y2 Analytics' presumably final Utah poll, Evan McMullin comes in second, receiving 28% of the vote.
***PPP released these polls on behalf of American Progress, an organization dedicated to gun control legislation reform.
For more information on state polls, including trend lines for individual states, visit RCP and HuffPo/Pollster and click on states (note, for Pollster, you will have to search for the state in the search bar).
- Any poll denoted with (R) or (D) refers to a pollster that is an internal pollster traditionally polling for one party or another. That doesn't mean their polls are wrong, but they do have a potential bias.
- Rasmussen's Pulse Opinion Research also released polling of NC, PA, FL and OH, on behalf of Alliance-ESA last updated 11/04. It's not clear what the numbers they intend to report, though, as they model the electorate in several different ways. Using the 3 day sample, Clinton leads by 3 pts in NC, 1 pt in NH, 6 pts in PA and 1 pt in OH. Trump leads by 1 in FL. The two candidates are tied in NV.
- SurveyMonkey has updated its 50 state survey.
- The final Des Moines Register poll of Iowa will be released tonight, conducted by Ann Selzer.
- Loras College has released its final poll of Iowa, showing Clinton leading by 1 pt. Its previous poll in mid-late September showed the candidates tied.
- Morning Call/Muhlenberg College has released its (presumably final) poll of Pennsylvania, showing Clinton leading by 4 pts. Its previous poll in late October (but before the FBI announcement) showed Clinton leading by 6 pts.
- [Latest] The Des Moines RegisteSelzer poll has released its final poll of Iowa, showing Trump leading by 7 pts. Its previous poll in mid-late October (but before the FBI announcement) showed Trump leading by 4 pts.
Cook, Serve, Delicious! 3?! Soundtrack - "Deciphered" and Translated Lyrics
Foreword
First, credit where credit is due. When I asked him about it, Jonathan Geer told me that A La Idavay is written / sung in Spanish with Pig Latin applied to it, so I can't say I figured that out on my own. Furthermore, I have to thank a member of the CSD Discord server, Alan, for revealing the "cipher" for the rest of the songs, and for providing a translation for Mufuchofo Gufustofo!Lastly, I would like to make it known that I am by no means a fluent speaker of Spanish. All I did was do some very basic "deciphering" after learning the keys and then slapping the deciphered text into Google translate. So if any lyrics aren't exactly right, please know that Google translate is not perfect, and neither am I.
I decided to put both versions of each song in this post - so I apologize for how lengthy this post will end up being - but it covers both Spanish and English versions of each of the songs. It didn't feel right to me to only include English lyrics, since the songs were initially written in Spanish; despite the encryption, that is.
So without further ado, here are the deciphered and translated lyrics, in order of how they appear in the album:
A La Idavay (A La Vida) - Deciphered
V1
Saltantoda a la familia (2x)
Hmmm, hmmm (2x)
Toda a la familia (2x)
Hmmm, hmm (2x)
CHORUS
Se saltan se cantan
Se disfrutan a la vida
Se saltan, bada ba ba ba ba bap
Se cantan, la da ba ba ba da
Se disfrutan a la vida
Wha ah oh, la da da da da ah
La da da da da ah oh
V2 (2x)
Cada persona
Tiene alas
Simplemente necesita
Saber como usarlas
A La Idavay (To The Life) - Translated
V1
Jumping with the family (2x)
Hmmm, hmmm (2x)
The whole family (2x)
Hmmm, hmm (2x)
CHORUS
They skip, they sing
They enjoy life
They skip, bada ba ba ba ba bap
They sing, la da ba ba ba da
They enjoy life
Wha ah oh, la da da da da ah
La da da da da ah oh
V2 (2x)
Each person
Has wings
They just need
To know how to use them
Mufuchofo Gufustofo! (Mucho Gusto) - Deciphered (Credit: Alan)
V1 & V2 (V2 uses different consonants in the ciphered version for one of the lines)
¡Hola! ¿Cómo estás? (2x)
Digame! (2x)
¡Hola! Bien, y tu? (2x)
Muy bien, gracias
CHORUS
Oooh, mucho gusto
Mucho gusto
Encantado (2x)
Igualmente
Es un placer
Conocerte
Mufuchofo Gufustofo! (Pleasure (To Meet You)) - Translated (Credit: Alan)
V1 & V2 (V2 uses a different consonants in the ciphered version for one of the lines)
Hello! How are you? (2x)
Tell me! (2x)
Hello! Good, and you? (2x)
Very well, thanks.
CHORUS
Oooh, nice to meet you
Nice to meet you
Delighted (to meet you) (2x)
Likewise
It's a pleasure
To meet you
Chakalaka - Deciphered
Cocino
(Chant: Servir, Delicioso!)
Es un video juego
Un video juego muy bueno
De verdad
Es un serie
Hay tres juegos
Son divertidos
Me gusta
Mucho
Te gusta
Tambien?
CHANT:
Cocino! (4x)
Cocino!
Servir, Delicioso!
Me guta
Mucho
Te gusta
Tambien?
Cocino!
Servir, Delicioso! (2x)
Es un video juego
Un video juego muy bueno
Me guta
mucho (2x)
*wild noises*
Chakalaka - Translated
Cook
(Chant: Serve, Delicious!)
It is a video game
A very good video game
It really
Is a series
There are three games
That are fun
I like it
Very much
Do you
Like it too?
Cook! (4x)
Cook!
Serve, Delicious!
I like it
Very much
Do you
Like it too?
Cook!
Serve, Delicious! (2x)
It is a video game
A very good video game
I like it
Very much (2x)
*wild noises*
Bad Day - Deciphered
Has fallado
esta vez
Ipententalo
de nuevo
Bad Day - Translated
You have failed
This time
Try it
Again
Good Day - Deciphered
Esta es una canción feliz
Siginifica hiciste
Un buen trabajo
Felicidades amigo!
Good Day - Translated
This is a happy song.
That means you did
A good job
Congrats friend!
Thank you all for coming along to uncover the little easter eggs Jonathan Geer has left for us all. I highly encourage you all to check out his Bandcamp, as it is the best place to support him if you like the work he's done on CSD and other ventures.
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