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Polling Megathread [11/04 - 11/05]

Welcome to the /politics polling megathread! As discussed in our metathread, we will be hosting a daily polling megathread to cover the latest released polls. As the election draws near, more and more polls will be released, and we will start to see many new polls on a daily basis. This thread is intended to aggregate these posts so users can discuss the latest polls. Like we stated in the metathread, posts analyzing poll results will still be permitted.

National Poll of Polls and Projections

Poll of Polls
Poll of polls are averages of the latest national polls. Different sources differ in which polls they accept, and how long they keep them in their average, which accounts for the differences. They give a snapshot to what the polling aggregates say about the national race right now, to account for outliers or biases in individual polls.
We have included both the 4 way race (4 way), and head to head aggregates (H2H), as they are presented this way in most polls.
Aggregator Clinton % Trump % Johnson % Stein % Net Margin
RCP (4 way) 45.0 42.7 4.8 2.1 Clinton +2.3
RCP (H2H) 46.6 44.8 N/A N/A Clinton +1.8
PollsteHuffpo (4 way) 45.7 40.2 5.1 N/A Clinton +5.5
PollsteHuffpo (H2H) 48.2 42.7 N/A N/A Clinton +5.5
Projections are data-driven models that try to make a prediction of a candidate's prospects on election day. They will incorporate polling data to give an estimate on how that will affect a candidate's chance of winning. Note: The percentages given are not popular vote margins, but the probability that a given candidate will win the presidency on election night.
Model Clinton % Trump %
Fivethirtyeight Polls Plus* 64.1 35.8
Princeton Election Consortium** 98 2
NYT Upshot 85 15
Daily Kos Elections 90 10
* Fivethirtyeight also includes Now Cast and a Polls-Only mode. These are available on the website but are not reproduced here. The Now Cast projects the election outcome if the election were held today, whereas Polls-Only projects the election on November 8th without factoring in historical data and other factors.
** Sam Wang's Princeton Election Consortium includes both a "random drift" and Bayesian projection. We have reproduced the "random drift" values in our table.
The NYT Upshot page has also helpfully included links to other projection models, including "prediction" sites. Predictwise is a Vegas betting site and reflects what current odds are for a Trump or Clinton win. Charlie Cook, Stu Rothenburg, and Larry Sabato are veteran political scientists who have their own projections for the outcome of the election based on experience, and insider information from the campaigns themselves.

Daily Presidential Polls

Below, we have collected the latest national and state polls. The head to head (H2H) and 4 way surveys are both included. We include the likely voter (LVs) numbers, when possible, in this list, but users are welcome to read the polling reports themselves for the matchups among registered voters (RVs).
National Polls
Date Released/Pollster Clinton % Trump % Johnson % Stein % Net Margin
11/05, IBD/TIPP 44 44 5 2 Tied
11/05, LA Times/USC 43 48 N/A N/A Trump +5
11/04, McClatchy/Marist 44 43 6 2 Clinton +1
11/04, Fox News 45 43 5 2 Clinton +2
11/04, Ipsos/Reuters 44 37 6 2 Clinton +7
11/04, ABC/WaPo 47 43 5 2 Clinton +4
11/04, Rasmussen 44 44 4 1 Tied
State Polling
Date Released/Pollster State Clinton % Trump % Johnson % Stein % Net Margin
11/04, Data Orbital Arizona 39 47 4 1 Trump +8
11/05, Breitbart/Gravis Colorado 40 40 7 4 Tied
11/04, PPP (D) Colorado 48 43 4 2 Clinton +5
11/04, Keating Res. (D) Colorado 43 38 7 2 Clinton +5
11/04, Trafalgar (R)* Colorado 45 44 5 4 Clinton +1
11/04, Landmark Georgia 46 48 4 N/A Trump +2
11/04, Opinion Savvy Georgia 45 49 4 N/A Trump +4
11/04, Howey/POS Indiana 37 48 9 N/A Trump +11
11/04, Breitbart/Gravis Indiana 39 49 5 N/A Trump +10
11/05, Loras College Iowa 44 43 3 3 Clinton +1
11/05, DMSelzer Iowa 39 46 6 1 Trump +7
11/04, Emerson* Iowa 41 44 5 4 Trump +3
11/04, Ft. Hays St. U. Kansas 34 58 N/A N/A Trump +24
11/04, Western NE U. Massachusetts 56 26 8 3 Clinton +30
11/04, FreeP/Epic-MRA Michigan 42 38 5 N/A Clinton +4
11/04, PPP (D) Michigan 46 41 6 2 Clinton +5
11/04, Daily CalleStrat. Nat. Michigan 44 44 4 3 Tied
11/04, PPP (D)*** Missouri 41 52 N/A N/A Trump +11
11/04, PPP (D)*** Nevada 48 45 N/A N/A Clinton +3
11/04, PPP (D)*** New Hampshire 48 43 N/A N/A Clinton +5
11/04, Breitbart/Gravis New Hampshire 41 43 7 2 Trump +2
11/04, Stockton College New Jersey 51 40 3 1 Clinton +11
11/04, Zia Poll New Mexico 46 43 7 1 Clinton +3
11/04, PPP (D)*** North Carolina 49 47 N/A N/A Clinton +2
11/05, Muhlenberg College Pennsylvania 44 40 7 2 Clinton +4
11/05, Breitbart/Gravis Pennsylvania 47 45 2 2 Clinton +2
11/04, PPP (D)*** Pennsylvania 48 44 N/A N/A Clinton +4
11/04, Harper (R) Pennsylvania 46 46 2 1 Tied
11/04, Breitbart/Gravis** Utah 29 35 3 1 Trump +6
11/04, Y2 Analytics** Utah 24 33 5 3 Trump +5
11/04, PPP (D) Virginia 48 43 4 1 Clinton +5
11/04, Roanoke College Virginia 45 38 5 2 Clinton +7
11/04, SUSA Washington 50 38 4 2 Clinton +12
11/04, PPP (D)*** Wisconsin 48 41 N/A N/A Clinton +7
11/04, Loras College Wisconsin 44 38 7 2 Clinton +6
Jill Stein is not listed on the ballot in Nevada, South Dakota, and Oklahoma. She is not on the ballot, but eligible as a write-in candidate in Indiana and North Carolina.
*Emerson College and Trafalgar only polls landlines. Standard pollster practice is to include as much as a 45% cell phone supplement or internet panel to account for changes in the electorate.
**In Gravis' final Utah poll, Evan McMullin comes in third, receiving 24% of the vote. In Y2 Analytics' presumably final Utah poll, Evan McMullin comes in second, receiving 28% of the vote.
***PPP released these polls on behalf of American Progress, an organization dedicated to gun control legislation reform.
For more information on state polls, including trend lines for individual states, visit RCP and HuffPo/Pollster and click on states (note, for Pollster, you will have to search for the state in the search bar).
Update Log/Comments:
  • Any poll denoted with (R) or (D) refers to a pollster that is an internal pollster traditionally polling for one party or another. That doesn't mean their polls are wrong, but they do have a potential bias.
  • Rasmussen's Pulse Opinion Research also released polling of NC, PA, FL and OH, on behalf of Alliance-ESA last updated 11/04. It's not clear what the numbers they intend to report, though, as they model the electorate in several different ways. Using the 3 day sample, Clinton leads by 3 pts in NC, 1 pt in NH, 6 pts in PA and 1 pt in OH. Trump leads by 1 in FL. The two candidates are tied in NV.
  • SurveyMonkey has updated its 50 state survey.
  • The final Des Moines Register poll of Iowa will be released tonight, conducted by Ann Selzer.
  • Loras College has released its final poll of Iowa, showing Clinton leading by 1 pt. Its previous poll in mid-late September showed the candidates tied.
  • Morning Call/Muhlenberg College has released its (presumably final) poll of Pennsylvania, showing Clinton leading by 4 pts. Its previous poll in late October (but before the FBI announcement) showed Clinton leading by 6 pts.
  • [Latest] The Des Moines RegisteSelzer poll has released its final poll of Iowa, showing Trump leading by 7 pts. Its previous poll in mid-late October (but before the FBI announcement) showed Trump leading by 4 pts.
Previous Thread(s): 10/02 | 10/04 - 10/06 | 10/07 - 10/09 | 10/10 - 10/12 | 10/13 - 10/15 | 10/16 | 10/17 | 10/18 - 10/19 | 10/20 - 10/23 | 10/24 - 10/25 | 10/26 | 10/27 | 10/28 - 10/30 | 10/31 - 11/02 | 11/03
submitted by Isentrope to politics

Cook, Serve, Delicious! 3?! Soundtrack - "Deciphered" and Translated Lyrics

I recently discovered that on Jonathan Geer's Bandcamp, songs which had lyrics in them - in English or otherwise - now had official lyrics. I decided to translate some of these songs and share them here with anyone who may be interested, after posting a few of my translations in the CSD Discord.


First, credit where credit is due. When I asked him about it, Jonathan Geer told me that A La Idavay is written / sung in Spanish with Pig Latin applied to it, so I can't say I figured that out on my own. Furthermore, I have to thank a member of the CSD Discord server, Alan, for revealing the "cipher" for the rest of the songs, and for providing a translation for Mufuchofo Gufustofo!
Lastly, I would like to make it known that I am by no means a fluent speaker of Spanish. All I did was do some very basic "deciphering" after learning the keys and then slapping the deciphered text into Google translate. So if any lyrics aren't exactly right, please know that Google translate is not perfect, and neither am I.
I decided to put both versions of each song in this post - so I apologize for how lengthy this post will end up being - but it covers both Spanish and English versions of each of the songs. It didn't feel right to me to only include English lyrics, since the songs were initially written in Spanish; despite the encryption, that is.
So without further ado, here are the deciphered and translated lyrics, in order of how they appear in the album:

A La Idavay (A La Vida) - Deciphered

Saltantoda a la familia (2x)
Hmmm, hmmm (2x)
Toda a la familia (2x)
Hmmm, hmm (2x)
Se saltan se cantan
Se disfrutan a la vida
Se saltan, bada ba ba ba ba bap
Se cantan, la da ba ba ba da
Se disfrutan a la vida
Wha ah oh, la da da da da ah
La da da da da ah oh
V2 (2x)
Cada persona
Tiene alas
Simplemente necesita
Saber como usarlas

A La Idavay (To The Life) - Translated

Jumping with the family (2x)
Hmmm, hmmm (2x)
The whole family (2x)
Hmmm, hmm (2x)
They skip, they sing
They enjoy life
They skip, bada ba ba ba ba bap
They sing, la da ba ba ba da
They enjoy life
Wha ah oh, la da da da da ah
La da da da da ah oh
V2 (2x)
Each person
Has wings
They just need
To know how to use them

Mufuchofo Gufustofo! (Mucho Gusto) - Deciphered (Credit: Alan)

V1 & V2 (V2 uses different consonants in the ciphered version for one of the lines)
¡Hola! ¿Cómo estás? (2x)
Digame! (2x)
¡Hola! Bien, y tu? (2x)
Muy bien, gracias
Oooh, mucho gusto
Mucho gusto
Encantado (2x)
Es un placer

Mufuchofo Gufustofo! (Pleasure (To Meet You)) - Translated (Credit: Alan)

V1 & V2 (V2 uses a different consonants in the ciphered version for one of the lines)
Hello! How are you? (2x)
Tell me! (2x)
Hello! Good, and you? (2x)
Very well, thanks.
Oooh, nice to meet you
Nice to meet you
Delighted (to meet you) (2x)
It's a pleasure
To meet you

Chakalaka - Deciphered

(Chant: Servir, Delicioso!)
Es un video juego
Un video juego muy bueno
De verdad
Es un serie
Hay tres juegos
Son divertidos
Me gusta
Te gusta
Cocino! (4x)
Servir, Delicioso!
Me guta
Te gusta
Servir, Delicioso! (2x)
Es un video juego
Un video juego muy bueno
Me guta
mucho (2x)
*wild noises*

Chakalaka - Translated

(Chant: Serve, Delicious!)
It is a video game
A very good video game
It really
Is a series
There are three games
That are fun
I like it
Very much
Do you
Like it too?
Cook! (4x)
Serve, Delicious!
I like it
Very much
Do you
Like it too?
Serve, Delicious! (2x)
It is a video game
A very good video game
I like it
Very much (2x)
*wild noises*

Bad Day - Deciphered

Has fallado
esta vez
de nuevo

Bad Day - Translated

You have failed
This time
Try it

Good Day - Deciphered

Esta es una canción feliz
Siginifica hiciste
Un buen trabajo
Felicidades amigo!

Good Day - Translated

This is a happy song.
That means you did
A good job
Congrats friend!

Thank you all for coming along to uncover the little easter eggs Jonathan Geer has left for us all. I highly encourage you all to check out his Bandcamp, as it is the best place to support him if you like the work he's done on CSD and other ventures.
submitted by Lavaman369 to cookservedelicious

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