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[OC[ A Plan for the Tank/Rebuild
Step 1: Obvious moves
The Vikings are currently projected to be $4M in the hole for 2021. We need to clear that space, and there are some easy moves to do that.
- Trade Anthony Harris now. This can't wait until the offseason. Harris is still a top 10 safety, but I don't see any way we sign him to a long term deal. If we can get a 3rd round pick, Harris should be gone.
- Cut LT Riley Reiff. 2021 is the last year of his deal, but cutting him beforehand would save us over $11M. That's an easy way for our wallet to get back to black.
- Extend/restructure Harrison Smith. 2021 is the last year of Smith's deal. He is not guaranteed any money. While he'll be 32 entering the 2021 season, he has proven that he's still an elite player and is the heart of our secondary. We should sign him to a deal that is heavy on guarantees and light on total money. Spielman has been able to get other team favorites like Barr, Thielen, and Hunter to take below-market deals. I expect the same for Smith.
- Cut/Trade TE Kyle Rudolph. At $9M AAV, Rudolph is currently the 5th highest paid TE in the league. I don't have to tell you that he is not the 5th best TE in the league. His contract is not as easy to shed as Reiff's, but cutting him would save us $27M over the next 3 years. Rudolph is still a viable red zone target and a competent blocker. A team with a lot of cap might want to ship off a day 3 pick in exchange for him. Prime suitors include Jacksonville, New England, Washington, Baltimore, the Chargers, and Arizona.
- Cut/Trade Anthony Barr. Barr has an out after this year, which would incur $7.8M in dead money but would save us $26M over the next two years. Barr has been a fun player to root for. But the truth is that he's only a mediocre OLB. The coaching staff reportedly loves rookie LB Troy Dye. He and Eric Wilson should be able to fill in the rest of our LB corps.
- Cute/Trade Adam Thielen. This is the hardest pill to swallow. But sooner or later, Thielen will become the clear WR2 to Jefferson. Then we're paying $14-15M a year for a WR2. Thielen has an out after 2020 that would incur only $5M in dead cap. He could also be traded to acquire a day 2 pick while still freeing most of the same cap space. Indy, New England, Baltimore, Miami, and Cincy are all suitable destinations with the need and cap space for him.
Step 2: Secure the future
As poor as the Vikings look now, we've done a solid job drafting. We need to retain the players that have found success and ensure that we are building with the right pieces.
- Extend Brian O'Neill. O'Neill has been the best lineman on our team since he was drafted. He's barely ever given up pressures, and he's a mauler in the run game. On a good day, he's a top 5 RT. Look for him to get a deal similar to La'el Collins (5 years/$50M/$20M guaranteed).
- Re-sign LB Eric Wilson. Wilson has been a great role player for us. Filling in for Barr, Wilson has been a capable starter. We should aim for a 2-3 year deal worth $3-4M a year.
- Retain Ifeadi Odenigbo. As bad as our DL has been, Ifeadi has been good. Not great. But good. He serves as a competent DE2 across from Hunter. He's a restricted free agent in 2021, meaning we can place a pick tender on him for a one year deal.
Step 3: Dealing with Cousins.
We're gonna get right into the elephant in the room. Kirk Cousins. I've defended Kirk for years. He's been more productive than other guys at his salary level (Goff, Wentz, Garoppolo). But if he was the real deal, we wouldn't need to make excuses for him. He'll never be more than a borderline top 10 QB on a good day. In this league, we need more than that.
But he also carries a huge contract. We can cut him after 2021 for only $10M, or we can try to find a trade partner. Cutting him in 2021 means we could sit a rookie QB behind him for a year. I'm not too sure what we could get for trading Kirk. I think a 3rd round pick is the most realistic offer we'll get, especially with the money tied to him.
|Year||Cap Hit||Dead Cap|
Colts - With the 3rd most projected cap space ($76.8M) in 2021, the Colts are a clear favorite. Rivers is on a one year deal, and the heir apparent is not on the roster. With a top 5 defense and perhaps the best OL in the league, the Colts have a roster that is ready to win now. Kirk would allow them to forgo reaching for a rookie (they would likely not be in range of Lawrence, Fields, or Lance this year). The Colts have been aggressive when looking for trade targets. Look to Buckner just last year.
Patriots - The Patriots are just behind Indy in cap space ($70.3M). Their starting QB is also on a one year deal, and Jarrett Stidham has shown that he isn't the answer. Similar to the Colts, the Patriots have a top 10 defense and one of the better OLs in the league. They are short on offensive weapons, but they have one of the greatest coaching staffs in the league.
Washington - Wouldn't it be crazy for Cousins to leave the DMV just to go back? The difference is that Ron Rivera is running the show. He knows that his front 7 gives him a chance at a top defense every year. They'll need to address their secondary and the offensive side of the ball, but they have enough cap space ($51M) and don't have a viable starting QB on the roster. Rivera may want to take a rookie QB if they're in range of one, but I can also see him wanting the steady hand that Kirk usually can provide.
The Jets and Jaguars are also potential trade candidates given their enormous cap room. But I expect those teams to either draft a QB or stick with the young starter they currently have for 2021.
For our purposes, let's assume we retain Cousins. Trading him would still keep us on the hook for a lot of his 2021 money. We are still at $11M in cap space for 2021.
Step 4: Acquiring cheap starters.
With only $11M to work with, this step is a bit tough. Keep in mind that we'll need to set aside roughly $8M for rookies. After steps 1-3, our major needs are DT, OG, S, and WR.
- Sign S Tashaun Gipson, CHI to a 1 year / $1M deal. Gipson has been a solid player in Chicago this year. He'll fill in for us as a capable starting safety while we turn to the draft for a long term solution.
- Sign OG Dakota Dozier, MIN to a 1 year / $1M deal. As poor as Dozier has been, he's a solid enough player at a very affordable price. The OG market is not friendly in 2021 unless we want to pay for Thuney or Scherff. We'll have to bank on drafting a quality guard. Dozier is competent in the meantime.
Draft studs. Easy, right? Let's take a crack at it. We're currently slated into the 6th overall pick. Let's see if we can do something with that. Let's (foolishly) assume no trades for simplicity's sake. Let's use TDN's big board as a reference for values and Tankathon for draft order.
1.06 - QB Trey Lance, NDSU - With 5 QB needy teams ahead of us, we'll need a bit of luck for Lance to fall to 6. But let's say he does. Lance is a very talented but raw prospect that could use some time on the bench after facing the likes of Northern Illinois and Central Arkansas in college. With Kirk essentially on a one year deal, Lance should be in a great situation with little pressure on him to perform early. What's best is that Lance is a hometown kid. Easy to root for.
3.68 - S Trevon Moehrig, TCU - I really like Moehrig in this safety class. He's a physical deep coverage guy that should be able to take over for Smith in the long run.
3.92 - DE Shaka Toney, Penn St - Toney is a raw but athletic pass rusher. He fits the Vikings' mold perfectly as a mid round project that can turn into a stud pass rusher. He'll rotate behind Ifeadi as he learns to dominate.
4.99 - DT Dante Stills, West Virginia - If we don't address DT early, I'm not sure we address it at all. But Stills has some decent upside as an interior pass rusher. He can at least push Watts and Lynch to improve.
4.117 - OG Zion Johnson, Boston College - I haven't watched Johnson, but after the success of later picks like Onwenu (NE), Lewis (SEA), and Kindley (MIA), I think we should be able to find a solid rookie guard in the 4th round.
4.125 - WR Tamorrion Terry, Florida St - Terry is a big physical player with impressive numbers. He'll compete in the WR room behind Jefferson.
5.130 - TE Tre' McKintty, Georgia - With Rudolph off the roster, we need depth behind Irv. McKitty is a move TE that shows a good willingness to block.
5.156 - OG Alex Lindstrom, Boston College - We go back to BC for our second lineman. Lindstrom is the younger brother of Chris, a recent 1st round pick for Atlanta. He'll likely sit behind Dozier as he learns the ropes.
6.167 - RB Trey Sermon, Ohio St - With no Boone or Abdullah, we add the dynamic Sermon to be our 3rd RB behind Cook and Mattison.
Step 6: Develop the youngsters.
Not much to discuss on the 2021 season. Develop Lance on the bench while Gladney and Dantzler hit their strides on defense.
Step 7: Profit
2022 is when we'll get it. We can cut Kirk, allowing Lance to shine in the spotlight. The 2020 draft class will be in their primes. Our OL will be much better with a Ezra-Zion-Garrett-Alex-Brian core that will carry us forward. Then we win the Superbowl.
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