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[Game Preview] Playoff Edition Super Bowl - New England Patriots (15-3) vs Philadelphia Eagles(15-3)
| Philadelphia Eagles (15-3) vs. New England Patriots (15-3) |
| The Eagles proved the pundits wrong again as they handled the number two seed Minnesota Vikings in the NFC Championship game. The Eagles offense put up 31 points on the NFL’s top rated defense as vintage Nick Foles came out to play throwing for 352 yards, 3 TDs and zero INTs in a dominate Eagles win at home in the Linc. The win sends the Eagles to the Super Bowl setting up a rematch of Super Bowl XXXIX against the New England Patriots. While the Eagles took care the Vikings with relative ease, the Patriots had some trouble putting away a pesky Jacksonville squad. Blake Bortles put up 293 yards and a touchdown on the New England defense and led going into the fourth quarter. However, Tom Brady was Tom Brady and led his team down the field for a go ahead touchdown and the Patriots defense sealed the game with a defensive stand. The New England defense will have its hands full vs the Eagles who are much more talented on offense than the Jacksonville Jaguars, especially if Nick Foles played the way he did against Minnesota. The Eagles will look to get Jay Ajayi and former Patriot LaGarrette Blount going early against a porous New England run defense that is giving up the 2nd most yards per attempt in the league at 4.7. If the Eagles do get the run game going it will greatly help the Eagles in the passing game setting up the RPO and play action where Nick Foles can be deadly. Patriots corners Malcom Butler and Stephen Gilmore struggled to shut down the Jaguars’ WRs and will face a more skilled veteran Eagles WR corps. Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith seemed to get on the same page with backup Nick Foles against the Vikings as the two combined for 10 receptions for 154 and 3 TDs against a vaunted Vikings secondary. The two will look to carry that momentum into Sunday against the Patriots 30th ranked pass defense. On the other side of the ball, the Patriots offense has one of the all-time greats at the helm in Tom Brady who spreads the ball around to numerous play makers including speedy WR Brandin Cooks and All-Pro TE Rob Gronkowski, who is currently in concussion protocol, but is expected to play. The Eagles did well shutting down Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen, but they did have Tom Brady throwing them the football, so the secondary will have to be on its game and not make any mistakes. One thing that could help them is the Philadelphia Eagle pass rush which has pressured the QB better than anyone in the league this year and has turned it up in the playoffs. The biggest key will be up the middle with Fletcher Cox, Timmy Jernigan and Beau Allen, if they can get a push and prevent Tom Brady from stepping up into the pocket it will take some of the heat off of the secondary. The Eagles don’t need to sack Tom Brady, but if they can hit and frustrate him like the Giants DLs did in Brady’s two Super Bowl losses they could force him into turnovers. Patriots’ coach Bill Belichick is one of the all-time greats will have his team prepared and any mistakes will be minimal, so the Eagles will need to take advantage of any that they can force. On the other side, Doug Pederson won’t shy away from the challenge of facing Belichick. He is going to play to win as evident by the end of second half of the Vikings game when he chose to go for points with just 29 second left instead of being satisfied with taking his 21-7 lead into halftime. The game will be a hard fought one at US Bank Stadium and you can bet the Eagles will continue to ride their underdog mentality against the Brady/Belichick dynasty. If the Eagles are going to go down, it will be fighting. Once again, virtually no pundits are picking the Eagles to win, but every dog has his day. Go Birds! |
| Date |
| Sunday, February 4, 2018 |
| Game Time | Game Location |
| 6:30 PM - Eastern | US Bank Stadium |
| 5:30 PM - Central | 401 Chicago Avenue |
| 4:30 PM - Mountain | Minneapolis, MN 55415 |
| 3:30 PM - Pacific | Wikipedia - Map |
| Weather Forecast |
| Stadium Type: Dome |
| Surface: UBU Sports Speed Series S5-M |
| Temperature: N/A |
| Feels Like: N/A |
| Forecast: N/A. |
| Chance of Precipitation: N/A |
| Cloud Coverage: N/A |
| Wind: N/A |
| Betting Odds |
| Oddsshark Information |
| Favorite/Opening Line: New England by -5.5 |
| OveUnder: 38 |
| Record VS. Spread: Philadelphia 12-6, New England 12-6 |
| Where to Watch on TV |
| NBC will broadcast Sunday’s game. Al Michaels will handle the play-by-play duties and Cris Collinsworth will provide analysis. Michele Tafoya will report from the sidelines. |
| TV Map – N/A All games televised nationally. |
| Internet Streams |
| NFL Streams - Look here 30 minutes before the game for Streams |
| Listen to Merrill Reese and Mike Quick |
| Calling the game on 94WIP and the Eagles Radio Network will be Merrill Reese, the NFL’s longest-tenured play-by-play announcer (41st season). Joining Reese in the radio booth will be former Eagles All-Pro wide receiver Mike Quick, while Howard Eskin will report from the sidelines. |
| Location | Station | Frequency |
| Philadelphia, PA | WIP-FM | 94.1 FM and 610 AM |
| Allentown, PA | WCTO-FM | 96.1 FM |
| Atlantic City/South Jersey | WENJ-FM | 97.3 FM |
| Levittown, PA | WBCB-AM | 1490 AM |
| Northumberland, PA | WEGH-FM | 107.3 FM |
| Pottsville, PA | WPPA-AM | 1360 AM |
| Reading, PA | WEEU-AM | 830 AM |
| Salisbury/Ocean City, MD | WAFL-FM | 97.7 FM |
| Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA | WEJL-FM | 96.1 FM |
| Salisbury/Ocean City, MD | WAFL-FM | 97.7 FM |
| Salisbury/Ocean City, MD | WEJL-AM | 630 AM |
| Salisbury/Ocean City, MD | WBAX-AM | 1240 AM |
| Williamsport, PA | WBZD-FM | 93.3 FM |
| Wilmington, DE | WDEL-FM/AM | 101.7 FM |
| York/LancasteHarrisburg, PA | WSOX-FM | 96.1 FM |
| Philadelphia Spanish Radio |
| Rickie Ricardo, Macu Berral and Gus Salazar will handle the broadcast in Spanish on Mega 105.7 FM in Philadelphia and the Eagles Spanish Radio Network. |
| Location | Station | Frequency |
| Philadelphia, PA | LA MEGA | 105.7 FM |
| Allentown, PA | WSAN | 1470 AM |
| Atlantic City, NJ | WIBG | 1020 AM; 101.3 FM |
| Patriots Radio |
| Patriots Radio Network Socci returns for his fifth season in the booth as play-by-play broadcasters on 98.5 The Sports Hub. Socci is joined in the booth by former Patriots quarterback Scott Zolak, who's entering his sixth season as action analyst. |
| National Radio |
| Westwood One Kevin Harlan (play-by-play), Boomer Esiason (analyst) and Mike Holmgren (analyst) will call the game. Ed Werder and Tony Boselli will report from the sidelines. |
| Station | Eagles Channel | Patriots Channel | National Channel | Spanish Channel |
| Sirius Radio | SIRI 83 (Internet 825) | 82 (Internet 820) | SIRI 88 (Internet 145) | SIRI 468 (Internet 966) |
| XM Radio | XM 83 (Internet 825) | XM 82 (Internet 820) | XM 88 (Internet 145) | XM 468 (Internet 966) |
| Sirius XM Radio | SXM 83 (Internet 825) | SXM 82 (Internet 820) | SXM 88 (Internet 145) | SXM 468 (Internet 966) |
| Team | Record | Pct | Home | Away | Div | Conf | PF | PA | Strk |
| Eagles(XYZ) | 13-3 | .813 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-1 | 10-2 | 457 | 295 | 1L |
| Cowboys | 9-7 | .563 | 3-5 | 6-2 | 5-1 | 7-5 | 354 | 332 | 1W |
| Redskins | 7-9 | .438 | 5-3 | 2-6 | 1-5 | 5-7 | 342 | 388 | 1L |
| Giants | 3-13 | .188 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 1-5 | 1-11 | 246 | 388 | 1W |
[x]-Clinched Division [Y]-Clinched 1st Round Bye [Z]-Clinched Home Field Advantage
| Seed | Team | Division | Record |
| 1 | Eagles | East | 15-3 |
| 2 | Vikings | North | 14-4 |
| 3 | Rams | West | 11-6 |
| 4 | Saints | South | 12-6 |
| 5 | Panthers | South | 11-6 |
| 6 | Falcons | South | 11-7 |
| Seed | Team | Division | Record |
| 1 | Patriots | East | 15-3 |
| 2 | Steelers | North | 13-4 |
| 3 | Jaguars | South | 12-7 |
| 4 | Chiefs | West | 10-7 |
| 5 | Titans | South | 10-7 |
| 6 | Bills | East | 9-8 |
| Series Information |
| Philadelphia Eagles lead the New England Patriots in the series, 7-6 |
| Series History |
| Head to Head Box Scores |
| First Game Played |
| November 4, 1973 at Veterans Stadium in Philadelphia, PA. Philadelphia Eagles 24 – New England Patriots 23 |
| Points Leader |
| The Philadelphia Eagles lead the New England Patriots (304-293) |
| Coaches Record |
| Doug Pederson: 0-0 against the Patriots |
| Bill Belichick: 4-1 against Eagles |
| Coaches Head to Head |
| Doug Pederson vs Bill Belichick: First meeting between the coaches |
| Quarterback Record |
| Nick Foles: Against Patriots: 0-0 |
| Tom Brady: Against Eagles: 4-1 |
| Quarterbacks Head to Head |
| Nick Foles vs Tom Brady: First meeting between the QBs |
| Records per Stadium |
| Record @ Lincoln Financial Field: Patriots lead 2-0 |
| Record @ Gillette Stadium: Patriots lead 2-1 |
| Record @ US Bank Stadium: Neither team has played at US Bank Stadium. |
| Rankings and Last Meeting Information |
| : |
| AP Pro 32 Ranking |
| Eagles No. 5 - Patriots No. 1 |
| Record |
| Eagles: 15-3 |
| Patriots: 15-3 |
| Last Meeting |
| Sunday, December 6, 2015 |
| Eagles 35 - Patriots 28 |
| As Jeffrey Lurie saw his team being taken away by a short little guy who is back with the kids where he belongs, he stepped into the Eagles locker room at Gillette Stadium and to rally his team for a win in Foxboro. The Eagles fell behind early before ripping off 5 straight touchdowns including a blocked punt return, interception return and punt return. The Eagles led 35-14, before Tom Brady woke and put two scores on the board to make it a one possession game, but a spike and three straight incomplete passes by Brady, sealed it for the Eagles as they ran out the clock. |
| Click here to view the Video Recap |
| Click here to view the Stats Recap |
| Last Meeting in Playoffs |
| Sunday, February 6, 2005 |
| Patriots 24 – Eagles 21 |
| The Eagles and Patriots met in Jacksonville to face off in Super Bowl XXXIX. Mistakes plagued the Eagles in a close game. Donovan McNabb was sacked 4 times and threw three interceptions and LJ Smith fumbled the ball away. Despite the turnovers, the game went back and forth with the Eagles striking first, before Tom Brady tied it up 7-7 going into half time. Patriots and Eagles traded TDs in the 3rd before with TD receptions from Mike Vrabel for the Patriots and Brian Westbrook for the Eagles. The Patriots then scored 10 straight points in the 4th quarter. The Eagles attempted to lead a late comeback, but came up short 24-21. |
| Click here to view the Video Recap |
| Click here to view the Stats Recap |
| Date | Winner | Loser | Score |
| 12/06/15 | Eagles | Patriots | 35-28 |
| 11/27/11 | Patriots | Eagles | 38-20 |
| 11/25/07 | Patriots | Eagles | 31-28 |
| 02/06/05 | Patriots | Eagles | 24-21 |
| 09/14/03 | Patriots | Eagles | 31-10 |
| 12/19/99 | Eagles | Patriots | 24-9 |
| 11/04/90 | Eagles | Patriots | 48-20 |
| 11/29/87 | Eagles | Patriots | 34-31 |
| 12/09/84 | Eagles | Patriots | 27-17 |
| 09/13/81 | Eagles | Patriots | 13-3 |
| 2017 Regular Season Stats (Starters/Leaders) |
Passing | Name | CMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | RAT |
| Foles | 57 | 101 | 56.4 | 537 | 5 | 2 | 79.5 |
| Wentz (IR) | 265 | 440 | 60.2% | 3296 | 33 | 7 | 101.9 |
| Brady | 385 | 581 | 66.3 % | 4577 | 32 | 8 | 102.8 |
Rushing | Name | ATT | YDS | YDS/G | AVG | TD |
| Blount | 173 | 824 | 47.9 | 4.4 | 2 |
| Ajayi | 70 | 408 | 58.3 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Lewis | 180 | 896 | 52.6 | 5.0 | 6 |
Receiving | Name | REC | YDS | YDS/G | AVG | TD |
| Ertz | 74 | 824 | 58.9 | 11.1 | 8 |
| Gronkowski | 69 | 1084 | 77.4 | 15.7 | 4 |
Sacks | Name | Sacks | Team Total |
| Graham | 9.5 | 38 |
| Flowers | 6.5 | 42 |
Tackles | Name | Total | Solo | Assist | Sacks |
| Bradham | 88 | 61 | 27 | 1.0 |
| McCourty | 97 | 80 | 17 | 1.0 |
Interceptions | Name | Ints | Team Total |
| Robinson | 4 | 19 |
| Harmon | 4 | 12 |
Punting | Name | ATT | YDS | LONG | AVG | NET | IN 20 | TB | BP |
| D. Jones | 67 | 3033 | 62 | 45.3 | 40.6 | 21 | 5 | 1 |
| Allen | 58 | 2515 | 60 | 43.4 | 40.5 | 24 | 3 | 0 |
Kicking | Name | ATT | MADE | % | LONG | PAT |
| Elliot | 31 | 26 | 83.9% | 61 | 39/42 |
| Gostkowski | 40 | 37 | 92.5% | 62 | 45/47 |
Kick Returns | Name | ATT | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
| Barner | 10 | 194 | 19.4 | 27 | 0 |
| Lewis | 23 | 570 | 24.8 | 103 | 1 |
Punt Returns | Name | RET | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD | FC |
| Barner | 27 | 240 | 8.9 | 76 | 0 | 15 |
| Amendola | 27 | 231 | 8.6 | 40 | 0 | 18 |
Offense Rankings | Category | Eagles Stat | Eagles Rank | Patriots Stat | Patriots Rank |
| Total Offense | 365.8 | 7th | 394.2 | 1st |
| Rush Offense | 132.2 | 3rd | 118.1 | 10th |
| Pass Offense | 233.6 | 13th | 276.1 | 2nd |
| Points Per Game | 28.6 | T-2nd | 28.6 | T-2nd |
| 3rd-Down Offense | 41.7% | 8th | 40.6% | 10th |
| 4th-Down Offense | 65% | 3rd | 61.5% | 5th |
| Red Zone Offense (TD%) | 65.5 | 1st | 60.0 | 5th |
Defense Rankings | Category | Eagles Stat | Eagles Rank | Patriots Stat | Patriots Rank |
| Total Defense | 306.5 | 4th | 394.1 | 29th |
| Rush Defense | 79.2 | 1st | 118.1 | 20th |
| Pass Defense | 227.3 | 17th | 276.1 | 30th |
| Points Per Game | 18.4 | 4th | 18.5 | 5th |
| 3rd-Down Defense | 32.2% | 3rd | 39.4% | 21st |
| 4th-Down Defense | 22.2% | T-1st | 43.5% | 13th |
| Red Zone Defense (TD%) | 55.3 | 20th | 43.8 | 4th |
Team | Category | Eagles Stat | Eagles Rank | Patriots Stat | Patriots Rank |
| Turnover Diff. | +11 | 4th | +6 | 11th |
| Penalty Per Game | 6.9 | T-20th | 5.7 | 7th |
| Penalty Yards Per Game | 60.1 | 22nd | 52.2 | 8th |
| 2017 Post Season Stats (Starters/Leaders) |
Passing | Name | CMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | RAT |
| Foles | 49 | 63 | 77.8 | 598 | 3 | 0 | 122.1 |
| Brady | 61 | 91 | 67.0% | 627 | 5 | 0 | 105.0 |
Rushing | Name | ATT | YDS | YDS/G | AVG | TD |
| Ajyai | 33 | 127 | 63.5 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Lewis | 24 | 96 | 48.0 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving | Name | REC | YDS | YDS/G | AVG | TD |
| Jeffery | 9 | 146 | 73.0 | 16.2 | 2 |
| Amendola | 18 | 196 | 98.0 | 10.9 | 2 |
Sacks | Name | Sacks | Team Total |
| Barnett/Cox/Bradham/McLeod | 1.0 | 4.0 |
| Wise/Grissom/Butler | 2.0 | 11 |
Tackles | Name | Total | Solo | Assist | Sacks |
| Darby | 14 | 12 | 12 | 0 |
| Chung | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 |
Interceptions | Name | Ints | Team Total |
| Robinson/Graham | 1 | 2 |
| N/A | 0 | 0 |
Punting | Name | ATT | YDS | LONG | AVG | NET | IN 20 | TB | BP |
| D. Jones | 6 | 253 | 54 | 42.2 | 38.8 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Allen | 58 | 2515 | 60 | 43.4 | 40.5 | 24 | 3 | 0 |
Kicking | Name | ATT | MADE | % | LONG | PAT |
| Elliot | 4 | 4 | 100% | 53 | 5/6 |
| Gostkowski | 1 | 2 | 50% | 31 | 8/8 |
Kick Returns | Name | ATT | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
| Barner | 1 | 26 | 26.0 | 26 | 0 |
| Lewis | 3 | 61 | 20.3 | 27 | 0 |
Punt Returns | Name | RET | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD | FC |
| Barner | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 10 | 0 | 4 |
| Amendola | 5 | 52 | 10.4 | 20 | 0 | 8 |
| League Rankings 2017 Postseason |
Offense Rankings | Category | Eagles Stat | Eagles Rank | Patriots Stat | Patriots Rank |
| Total Offense | 395.0 | 3rd | 391.0 | 4th |
| Rush Offense | 103.0 | 7th | 73.5 | 10th |
| Pass Offense | 292.0 | 5th | 317.5 | 3rd |
| Points Per Game | 26.5 | 4th | 29.5 | 2nd |
| 3rd-Down Offense | 59% | 1st | 48% | 3rd |
| 4th-Down Offense | 100% | T-1st | 100% | T-1st |
| Red Zone Offense (TD%) | 65.5 | 1st | 57.9 | 9th |
Defense Rankings | Category | Eagles Stat | Eagles Rank | Patriots Stat | Patriots Rank |
| Total Defense | 306.5 | 4th | 275.9 | 1st |
| Rush Defense | 78.0 | 2nd | 83.0 | 3rd |
| Pass Defense | 229.0 | 5th | 237.5 | 6th |
| Points Per Game | 8.5 | 1st | 17.0 | 4th |
| 3rd-Down Defense | 38% | 6th | 37% | 4th |
| 4th-Down Defense | 25% | 4th | 50% | T-5h |
| Red Zone Defense (TD%) | 55.3 | 20th | 40.0 | 3rd |
| Recap from Last Week’s Games. |
| Eagles - Video For the second week in a row, the number one seed was were underdogs going into a game on their own turf. After taking care the Falcons in the NFC Divisional Round, the Eagles welcomed the Minnesota Vikings to the Linc for the NFC Championship off their win over the Saints with the Minnesota Miracle. The Vikings took a quick lead scoring on their opening possession and forced a quick 3 and out. After that it was all Eagles. Chris Long hit Case Keenum's arm forcing an errant pass that Patrick Robinson took the other way for a 50 yard pick six. The Eagles defense forced 3 and out on the next possession as Nick Foles lead the Eagles 75 yards down the field against the league's number one defense before LaGarrett Blount barreled his way in the endzone for his 10th post season TD. The Eagles defense came up big in the second quarter as the Vikings were threatening to put points on the board before Derek Barnett sacked Case Keenum and forced a fumble recovered by Chris Long. Foles found Jeffery on the following drive for 53 yards and the TD. The Eagles would tack on 3 more points at the end of the half as they got the ball with just 29 seconds left and quickly moved down the field and set up a 53 yard Jake Elliott FG. Doug Pederson pulled out some razzle dazzle to open the second half as he called for a flea flicker which resulted in a 41 yard Torrey Smith TD. Foles would throw his 3rd TD pass of the game and 2nd to Alshon Jeffery to start the 4th quarter, in what ended up being 38 unanswered points, 31 by the offense against the league top defense. The Eagles defense would hold the Vikings scoreless after the opening possession and hold on to the win and send the Eagles to their third Super Bowl. |
Patriots -
Video – The Patriots were coming off a stomping of the Titans in the AFC Divisional round and welcomed the Jacksonville to town who were coming off a shootout win over the Steelers. The Patriots struck first blood with an early Goskowski 31 yard FG in the first quarter. In the second quarter however, the Jaguars woke up scoring touchdowns on consecutive possessions with the first coming in the form of an 11 yard Blake Bortles pass to Marcedes Lewis and the next on a Leonard Fournette run up the gut. The Patriots answered moving the ball down field with the help of a unnecessary roughness from an ugly helmet hit on All-Pro Rob Gronkowski which took him out of the game with a concussion and a very question pass interference penalty. James White ran the ball in with 55 seconds left to go in the half to make it a 4 point game. Jacksonville played it safe and opted to run out the clock rather than try to extend their lead with the 55 seconds left on the clock. Jacksonville would add two FGs in the second quarter, but Tom Brady would find Danny Amendola in the back of the endzone to start the fourth quarter to cut the lead to just 3. After a bad punt and good return by Amendola, Brady would play comeback hero once against in his career as he led his team down the field and took the lead with his second TD pass to Amendola on the night. The Patriots defense held the lead and shutdown Blake Bortles to second the Patriots to their 2nd straight Super Bowl and will send the Patriots to their 8th Super Bowl under Bill Belichick.|
| Connections |
| Patriots WR Dion Lewis was drafted by the Philadelphia Eagles in the 5th round of the 2011 NFL Draft and played two seasons with them before he was traded to the Cleveland Browns before the 2013 season. |
| Patriots WR Danny Amendola was signed by the Philadelphia Eagles in 2009, but was cut during the final rounds of cuts and was signed to their practice squad before being signed by the St. Louis Rams. |
| Eagles DE Chris Long spent one season with the Patriots in 2016 and won a Super Bowl ring with them. |
| Eagles RB LaGarrett Blount spent 4 season with the Patriots in two separate stints in 2013 and 2014-2016 and won two Super Bowl rings with them in the 2014 and 2016 seasons. |
| Eagles LB/K Kamu Grugier-Hill was drafted by the New England Patriots in the 6th round of the 2016 NFL Draft, he was waived Patriots during final roster cuts and claimed by the Eagles. |
| Patriots DB Eric Rowe was selected in the 2nd round of the 2015 NFL drafted and spent the 2015 season with the Eagles before being traded to the Patriots the following season. |
| Patrick Chung signed with the Eagles in 2013 and he played one season with the team before being released and returning to the Patriots. |
| Eagles Owner Jeffrey Lurie grew up as a Patriots fan and attempted to purchase Patriots in 1993 before being outbid by Robert Kraft. He purchased the Philadelphia Eagles the following season. |
| Eagles TE Zach Ertz and Patriots OT Cameron Flemming were offensive teammates together at Stanford. |
| Patriots FB James Devlin grew up in the Philadelphia suburb of Gilbertsville, PA and attended Boyertown High School. |
| Eagles QB Nick Foles and Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski were teammates together at University of Arizona for two years, but never played together as Nick Foles sat out the first year due to transfer rules and Gronkowski injured his back the following year. |
| Jim Schwartz was a personnel scout for the Cleveland Browns from 1993-1995 while Bill Belichick was the Head Coach. |
| Eagles DB Coach Cory Undlin was a defensive assistant under Bill Belichick for the Patriots in 2004. |
| Eagles TE coach Eugene Chung played three seasons for the Patriots from 1992-1994. |
| Patriots Special Teams Coordinator Joe Judge was born in Philadelphia and attended Lansdale Catholic High School. |
2018 Pro Bowlers | Eagles | Patriots |
| OT Lane Johnson(Reserve) | QB Tom Brady(Starter) |
| QB Carson Wentz (Starter) | TE Rob Gronkowski(Reserve) |
| TE Zach Ertz (Starter) | FB James Devlin (Starter) |
| G Brandon Brooks (Starter) | ST Matthew Slater (Starter) |
| DT Fletcher Cox (Starter) | |
| FS Malcom Jenkins(Reserve) | |
| C Jason Kelce (1st Alt) | |
| DE Brandon Graham (1st Alt) | |
| CB Jalen Mills (3rd Alt) | |
| K Jake Elliot (2nd Alt) | |
| ST Kame Grugier-Hill (2nd Alt) | |
| General |
| Referee: Gene Steratore |
| Philadelphia has held opponents to 10-or-fewer points in 4 consecutive games (dating back to Week 16), which is the club’s longest streak since 1974 (5 games). The last NFL team to accomplish that feat was the 2009 Broncos (4). |
| This is the first time in franchise history that the Eagles have allowed 10-or-fewer points in back-to-back games of the same postseason. The last NFL team to accomplish that feat was the 2009 Ravens (2). |
| In the NFC Championship, Philadelphia defeated Minnesota, 38-7. The Eagles scored the 2nd-most points in team playoff history (W, 58-37 vs. Detroit on 12/30/95). The club’s +31 point margin was the best in team playoff history |
| Philadelphia finished the regular season with a franchise record-tying 13 wins (also 2004), tying Minnesota, New England and Pittsburgh for the best record in the NFL. |
| The Eagles became just the fourth team in NFL history to score 38+ points and allow no more than 7 points in a conference championship game since the 1970 merger. |
| Philadelphia’s 456 total yards (346 passing, 110 rushing) in the conference championship victory vs. Minnesota were the most in Eagles playoff history.). |
| Philadelphia totaled 27 first downs (7 rushing, 19 passing, 1 penalty) in the NFC Championship against the Vikings were the most in team postseason history. |
| The Eagles converted 10-of-14 (71.4%) third-down attempts in the win vs. Minnesota, which marked the best thirddown conversion rate in franchise playoff history. It was the 2nd-best third-down conversion rate in NFL playoff history, trailing only Atlanta’s 76.9% (10-of-13) in the 2016 NFC Championship vs. Green Bay (1/22/17). |
| Philadelphia led the NFL in red zone TD efficiency (65.5%), time of possession (32:41) and opponent rushing yards per game (79.2). The Eagles also tied with New England for the NFL lead in point differential (+162). |
| Philadelphia’s 457 points ranked 3rd in the NFL, behind L.A. Rams (478) and New England (458). The Eagles’ 457 points were also the 2nd-most in team history, trailing only their 2014 production (474). |
| Philadelphia led the NFL in rushing defense (79.2), posting their lowest mark since 1991 (71.0). The Eagles’ 79.2 opponent rushing yards per game were the fewest allowed by an NFL team since the 2014 Lions (69.3). |
| Philadelphia ranked 3rd in the NFL in rushing yards per game (132.2), behind Jacksonville (141.4) and Dallas (132.2). The Eagles also ranked 3rd in third-down defense (32.2%) and fourth-down offense (65.4%). |
| Philadelphia produced the 4th-most takeaways in the NFL (31), trailing only Baltimore (34), Jacksonville (33) and Detroit (32). The Eagles ranked 4th in the NFL in turnover differential (+11), behind Baltimore (+17), Kansas City (+15) and L.A. Chargers (+12). |
| In 3 career playoff games, Nick Foles has completed 72- of-96 (75.0%) attempts for 793 yards, 5 TDs, 0 INTs and a 116.4 passer rating. During the 2017 playoffs, Foles has completed 49-of-63 (77.8%) attempts for 598 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs and a 122.1 passer rating. |
| LeGarrette Blount has 10 rushing TDs in 10 career playoff games (including 2 TDs this postseason). His 10 rushing TDs are the 7th-most in NFL playoff history, behind Hall of Famers Emmitt Smith (19), Thurman Thomas (16), Franco Harris (16), Terrell Davis (12), John Riggins (12) and Marcus Allen (11) |
| Blount is the first Eagle with rushing TDs in back-to-back playoff games since Brian Westbrook during the 2006 playoffs (1/7/07-1/13/07). |
| Alshon Jeffery caught 2 TDs in the win against the Vikings. Jeffery is the fifth Eagle with 2 receiving TDs in a playoff game (first since Brent Celek on 1/18/09 at Arizona). |
| Philadelphia will make its third Super Bowl appearance, having previously played in Super Bowl XV vs. Oakland (L, 10-27) following the 1980 season and Super Bowl XXXIX vs. New England (L, 21-24) following the 2004 season. |
| Philadelphia owns the 5th-highest winning percentage (.595) in the NFL (including playoffs) since 2000, behind New England (.744), Pittsburgh (.650), Indianapolis (.615) and Green Bay (.611) |
| Sunday marks the seventh NFL championship game in Eagles history. Philadelphia played in four NFL Championships in 1947 (L, 21-28 at Chicago Cardinals), 1948 (W, 7-0 vs. Chicago Cardinals), 1949 (W, 14-0 at L.A. Rams) and 1960 (W, 17-13 vs. Green Bay Packers). |
| The Patriots will have a chance to tie for the most Super Bowl wins if they win on Sunday or tie for the most Super Bowl losses if they lose on Sunday. |
Draft Picks | Eagles | Patriots |
| DE Derek Barnett | OLB Derek Rivers |
| CB Sidney Jones | OT Antonio Garcia |
| CB Rasul Douglas | DE Deatrich Wise Jr. |
| WR Mack Hollins | OT Connor McDermott |
| RB Donnel Pumphrey | |
| WR Shelton Gibson | |
| LB Nathan Gerry | |
| DT Elijah Qualls | |
Notable Off-season Additions | Eagles | Patriots |
| WR Torrey Smith | CB Stephon Gilmore |
| WR Alshon Jeffery | RB Rex Burkhead |
| DE Chris Long | RB Mike Gillislee |
| DT Timmy Jernigan | DT Lawrence Guy |
| RB LaGarrett Blount | WR Brandin Cooks |
| CB Patrick Robinson | DT Ricky Barkley Jean Francois |
| G Chance Warmack | LB David Harris |
| S Corey Graham | C James Ferentz |
| CB Ronald Darby | DE Eric Lee |
| K Jake Elliott | LB Nicholas Grigsby |
| LB Dannell Ellerbe | WR Kenny Britt |
| OT Will Beatty | LB James Harrison |
| QB Brian Hoyer |
| TE Dwayne Allen |
| CB Johnson Bademosi |
| WR Phillip Dorsett |
Notable Off-season Departures | Eagles | Patriots |
| CB Nolan Carroll | TE Martellus Bennett |
| DE Connor Barwin | RB LaGarrette Blount |
| DT Bennie Logan | WR Michael Floyd |
| QB Chase Daniel | DE Chris Long |
| CB Leodis McKelvin | OLB Barkevious Mingo |
| WR Dorial Green-Beckham | CB Logan Ryan |
| DE Marcus Smith | DE Jabaal Sheard |
| RB Ryan Mathews | |
Pro Football Focus Matchup Charts courtesy of PFF Edge Matchups
- (CAPS = Shadow Coverage)
- Stats are based on the regular season
Eagles WRs vs. Patriots DBs IMAGE.
| Tm | WDB | Pos | H | Wt | Sp | Rt | L% | S% | R% | %TaRt | Cat% | YPRC | Gr | Adv |
| PHI | ALSHON JEFFERY | LWR | 75 | 218 | 4.48 | 577 | 45 | 16 | 39 | 20 | 50 | 1.44 | 80 | -16 |
| NE | STEPHON GILMORE | RCB | 73 | 190 | 4.38 | 479 | 42 | 12 | 45 | 15 | 63 | 1.11 | 87.1 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| PHI | Torrey Smith | RWR | 72 | 205 | 4.41 | 465 | 38 | 17 | 45 | 14 | 61 | 0.99 | 41.4 | -55 |
| NE | Malcolm Butler | LCB | 71 | 190 | | 614 | 51 | 13 | 36 | 16 | 60 | 1.26 | 80.8 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| PHI | Nelson Agholor | Slot | 72 | 198 | 4.42 | 502 | 7 | 86 | 7 | 19 | 67 | 1.58 | 79.1 | +28 |
| NE | Eric Rowe | Slot | 73 | 205 | 4.45 | 148 | 14 | 79 | 7 | 19 | 59 | 1.89 | 46.9 | |
Patriots WRs vs. Eagles DBs IMAGE | Tm | WDB | Pos | H | Wt | Sp | Rt | L% | S% | R% | %TaRt | Cat% | YPRC | Gr | Adv |
| NE | Brandin Cooks | LWR | 70 | 189 | 4.33 | 627 | 55 | 19 | 26 | 17 | 61 | 1.74 | 79.3 | -27 |
| PHI | Ronald Darby | RCB | 71 | 193 | 4.38 | 232 | 6 | 3 | 91 | 22 | 55 | 1.5 | 81.8 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| NE | Chris Hogan | RWR | 73 | 210 | | 402 | 18 | 48 | 34 | 16 | 59 | 1.23 | 53.4 | -37 |
| PHI | Jalen Mills | LCB | 72 | 191 | 4.61 | 609 | 87 | 3 | 10 | 18 | 60 | 1.14 | 71 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| NE | Danny Amendola | Slot | 71 | 190 | 4.58 | 418 | 6 | 83 | 11 | 21 | 82 | 1.86 | 75.5 | +16 |
| PHI | Patrick Robinson | Slot | 71 | 191 | 4.46 | 464 | 6 | 80 | 14 | 19 | 56 | 1.34 | 90.4 | |
TE Matchups IMAGE | Tm | TE/Def | H | Wt | Rt | Bl% | Inl% | S% | W% | %TaRt | Cat% | YPRC | Gr | Adv |
| NE | Rob Gronkowski | 78 | 265 | 567 | 11 | 32 | 51 | 17 | 23 | 64 | 2.33 | 89.9 | +13 |
| PHI | Malcolm Jenkins (S) | 72 | 204 | 262 | | | | | 8 | 64 | 0.48 | 83.8 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| PHI | Zach Ertz | 77 | 250 | 488 | 7 | 42 | 41 | 17 | 23 | 73 | 1.82 | 85.7 | +11 |
| NE | Patrick Chung (S) | 71 | 215 | 314 | | | | | 13 | 51 | 0.84 | 86.3 | |
OL/DL Matchups IMAGE Note: Pressure Rate and Yards Before Contact are projected numbers based on the starters' grades and are adjusted for injuries. All other stats are based on this season's data | Tm | Press% | SkConv | YBCon | Runs ins. 5 yd ln/gm | TD ins. 5 yd ln% | PB Adv | RB Adv |
| NE (OL) | 4.1 | 13 | 1.89 | 1.1 | 41 | -12 | +6 |
| PHI (DL) | 7.3 | 19 | 1.36 | 0.6 | 33 | | |
| PHI (OL) | 4.4 | 16 | 1.84 | 1 | 31 | +3 | +40 |
| NE (DL) | 6 | 17 | 1.99 | 0.2 | 67 | | |
| Stats to Know |
| Playing the Patriots' Slot Machine |
| The Patriots have a lot of weapons they deploy in the slot. Which personnel packages Eagles DC Jim Schwartz decides to go with will be key in this game. RBs Dion Lewis and James White line up in the slot 37% and 41% of their snaps, respectively. TE Rob Gronkowski lines up in the slot about 33% of his snaps, but about half of his yards come from the slot. From the slot, Gronk has the 2nd-highest receiving yards of all TEs (554), behind Travis Kelce. His Yards Per Route Run from slot alignment is also 2nd of all TEs. And he has ZERO drops from the slot (5 total). WR Danny Amendola is the primary slot aligner, accounting for 570/659 yards, 54/61 receptions and 515/666 (78%) of his snaps. If Gym Shorts is reading this, you might want to consider not playing a MLB this game. Just a suggestion. Kthxbai --Courtesy of PFF Elite |
| Matchups to Watch |
| Doug Pederson & Co. vs Bill Belichick & Co. |
| Eagles fans learned a lot about their team this season but perhaps the biggest take away is that COACHING MATTERS. If someone told us that a visor-wearing offensive guru that emphasizes practice and preparation would take the league by storm and quickly help make the Eagles contenders we would have believed it. We just would have thought that would have been Chip Kelly several years ago. Coaching has made the difference for the Eagles this season as Doug Pederson and company have navigated treacherous waters in route to this game. This Eagles team has been prepared for everything they have seen this season and now face their toughest test as the Patriots enter the Super Bowl with their own excellent coaching staff. There is no bigger match up in this game than right here. Pederson and his staff continue to put the Eagles in positions to win. Bill Belichick and his staff do the same thing. They are notorious for how well they team the game to their players and have them prepared. They are known for their continued adjustments and the ability to excel in situational football. They make you beat them. Given the talent and excellence in coaching, it’s no wonder they don’t lose often. Pederson isn’t Belichick but he has proven to be quite the coaching mastermind in his own right. They are always open to great ideas and always take feedback from their players. They are film junkies who constantly look for areas to exploit their opponent. They put their players in positions to succeed and they don’t settle for less than full effort. We’ve seen throughout the season the players rally around one another; this team has been everything Philadelphia fans love to root for and have the chance to celebrate the one thing they want more than anything. That’s a testament to great coaching. The Eagles will need one more great game plan and coaching effort in order to win this game as they will get the best of what New England has to offer. |
Matchups are continued in the comments below due to character limits. submitted by
Rsubs33 to
eagles
Two Isolated Sample Sizes - Dark Symphony Raid - 219100 and 108800 Coins
EDIT : Added some actual discussion throughout the post to give meaning to all the numbers and analysis.
TL;DR: Read tables 10 and 11, they sum up my data as well as compares this raid to the last few to a degree.
Another late post, my apologies. Work, exams, Facebook locking my account for 2 days, family and friends and all that, yada yada yada. Let's dive into the numbers, shall we?
This time around I tried something new. I've slowly been working on an alt account and it was able to reliably farm PRO and occasionally farm ELT thanks to strong friends, so I was able to collect two sets of data! I've worked the numbers on both (This may or may not continue).
Note: - Rounding Estimation is essentially just an intermediate step while going to the Better Estimation by rounding the pull rate off, but I found it to be slightly significant so I added it.
- Sources and interesting links at the bottom.
Below are my findings for my main account compared to the Wiki's findings1 :
Table 1
| Name | Total Pulls | Pull Rate (%) | Rounding Estimation (%) | Better Estimation (%) | Wiki's Estimation (%) | Absolute Difference (%) |
| King Gil Snapper | 75 | 3.42 | 3.40 | 3.50 | 3.00 | 0.5 |
| Metal Gigantuar | 62 | 2.83 | 2.80 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 0 |
| Gil Snapper Family | 18 | 0.82 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| King Metal Minituar | 15 | 0.68 | 0.70 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| Kitty Ariana Moogle | 13 | 0.59 | 0.60 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.25 |
| Ling Moogle | 11 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0 |
| Penelo Moogle | 11 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| Sportive Ariana Moogle | 20 | 0.91 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.5 |
| Purple Nail Polish | 244 | 11.14 | 11.10 | 11.00 | 12.00 | 1 |
| Purple Lipstick | 229 | 10.45 | 10.50 | 10.50 | 12.00 | 1.5 |
| Purple Hair Spray | 236 | 10.77 | 10.80 | 10.75 | 12.00 | 1.25 |
| Purple Perfume | 268 | 12.23 | 12.20 | 12.00 | 12.00 | 0 |
| CD Album | 42 | 1.92 | 1.90 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1 |
| Random Megacite | 360 | 16.43 | 16.40 | 16.50 | 17.00 | 0.5 |
| Random Magicite | 587 | 26.79 | 26.80 | 26.75 | 25.00 | 1.75 |
| Total summoned | 4628 | 100.00 | 99.90 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 0 |
Magicite and Megacite breakdown below:
Table 2
| Magicite Color | Total Pulls | Pull Rate (%) | Estimation (%) |
| Red | 69 | 3.15 | 3.34 |
| Blue | 63 | 2.88 | 3.34 |
| Green | 69 | 3.15 | 3.34 |
| White | 78 | 3.56 | 3.34 |
| Black | 76 | 3.47 | 3.34 |
| Yellow | 95 | 4.34 | 3.34 |
| Orange | 63 | 2.88 | 3.34 |
| Violet | 74 | 3.38 | 3.34 |
| Total Pulled | 587 | 26.79 | 26.75 |
Table 3
| Megacite Color | Total Pulls | Pull Rate (%) | Estimation (%) |
| Red | 44 | 2.01 | 2.06 |
| Blue | 46 | 2.10 | 2.06 |
| Green | 44 | 2.01 | 2.06 |
| White | 37 | 1.69 | 2.06 |
| Black | 40 | 1.83 | 2.06 |
| Yellow | 53 | 2.42 | 2.06 |
| Orange | 47 | 2.15 | 2.06 |
| Violet | 49 | 2.24 | 2.06 |
| Total Pulled | 360 | 16.43 | 16.50 |
Please note that the "Absolute Difference" category is there to delineate how close my sample size is to the collective sample size the Wiki has put together. 0% means my data directly correlates to that of the Wiki's data. 0.25-0.50% is a relatively reasonable margin of bias and RNG differences. 0.50-1% starts getting into the "this is a bit different" category. Anything above 1% in my opinion is starting to get into the whole "okay there's a bit of a difference between these two data sets" but is still within the realm of reason a long as it's below 2% seeing as my sample size is still really small in comparison. Do keep in mind this paragraph is my opinion based off of what i've seen in the past while I've done this and not actual analysis, I just wanna help give meaning to that column as I see it as very important.
The trend seems to be that the lower the estimated percent of something being pulled (i.e. the Moogles) has a smaller absolute difference between my data and the Wiki's data compared to the more abundant items (i.e. materials). This actually surprised me seeing as the Law of Averages and the way statistics works is that the more data you gather on something, the closer the limit approaches the average. Since the units were pulled far less often and with such smaller numbers (which as 15 and 20), we might expect a more wild fluctuation between the actual numbers between the two data sets. We see the more wild fluctuation with the materials, which were closer to number with 229 and 268.
We do, on the other hand, see more typical behavior when we compare the actual pull numbers to the estimated percentage from my set and the Wiki's set. For example, the King Metal Minitaur, of which I pulled 15, had an actual 0.68% pull rate compared to my estimation of 0.75% and the Wiki's of 0.50%. This means my pulls were about 9.4% different from my estimation and about 26.4% off from the Wiki's estimation. On the other hand, I pulled 236 Purple Hair Sprays of which i'm 0.2% from my estimation and 10.5% off from the Wiki's estimation. Both of these comparisons are indicative of the units (smaller estimates) and materials/-cites (larger estimates) respectively.
The megacite and magicite tables are pretty typical.
Below are my findings for my alt account compared to the Wiki's findings1 :
Table 4
| Name | Total Pulls | Pull Rate (%) | Rounding Estimation (%) | Better Estimation (%) | Wiki's Estimation (%) | Absolute Difference (%) |
| King Gil Snapper | 30 | 2.76 | 2.80 | 2.75 | 3.00 | 0.25 |
| Metal Gigantuar | 34 | 3.13 | 3.10 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 0 |
| Gil Snapper Family | 8 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| King Metal Minituar | 7 | 0.64 | 0.60 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| Kitty Ariana Moogle | 12 | 1.10 | 1.10 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 0.25 |
| Ling Moogle | 10 | 0.92 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.5 |
| Penelo Moogle | 4 | 0.37 | 0.40 | 0.50 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| Sportive Ariana Moogle | 10 | 0.92 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.5 |
| Purple Nail Polish | 128 | 11.76 | 11.80 | 11.75 | 12.00 | 0.25 |
| Purple Lipstick | 117 | 10.75 | 10.80 | 10.75 | 12.00 | 1.25 |
| Purple Hair Spray | 125 | 11.49 | 11.50 | 11.50 | 12.00 | 0.5 |
| Purple Perfume | 126 | 11.58 | 11.60 | 11.50 | 12.00 | 0.5 |
| CD Album | 21 | 1.93 | 1.90 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1 |
| Random Megacite | 191 | 17.56 | 17.60 | 17.50 | 17.00 | 0.5 |
| Random Magicite | 265 | 24.36 | 24.40 | 24.25 | 25.00 | 0.75 |
| Total summoned | 1088 | 100.00 | 100.10 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 0 |
Magicite and Megacite breakdown below:
Table 5
| Magicite Color | Total Pulls | Pull Rate (%) | Estimation (%) |
| Red | 39 | 3.58 | 3.03 |
| Blue | 35 | 3.22 | 3.03 |
| Green | 34 | 3.13 | 3.03 |
| White | 29 | 2.67 | 3.03 |
| Black | 32 | 2.94 | 3.03 |
| Yellow | 33 | 3.03 | 3.03 |
| Orange | 39 | 3.58 | 3.03 |
| Violet | 24 | 2.21 | 3.03 |
| Total Pulled | 265 | 24.36 | 24.25 |
Table 6
| Megacite Color | Total Pulls | Pull Rate (%) | Estimation (%) |
| Red | 19 | 1.75 | 2.19 |
| Blue | 22 | 2.02 | 2.19 |
| Green | 19 | 1.75 | 2.19 |
| White | 27 | 2.48 | 2.19 |
| Black | 25 | 2.30 | 2.19 |
| Yellow | 25 | 2.30 | 2.19 |
| Orange | 28 | 2.57 | 2.19 |
| Violet | 26 | 2.39 | 2.19 |
| Total Pulled | 191 | 17.56 | 17.50 |
The data comparison is pretty similar here to the main account's data with some exceptions:
- The sum of the Absolute Differences column (total difference between my estimate and the wiki's) in the main account was 9 while for this account it's 7. A smaller sample size with a closer alignment with the wiki's data is unexpected but explainable since the variance of pulls is wider with smaller data sets.
- The difference between my estimation and the Wiki's is more averaged in this alt account set than it was in the main account (smaller differences with the materials and larger differences with the units).
Below are my findings for my main + alt accounts added together compared to the Wiki's findings1 :
Table 7
| Name | Total Pulls | Pull Rate (%) | Rounding Estimation (%) | Better Estimation (%) | Wiki's Estimation (%) | Absolute Difference (%) |
| King Gil Snapper | 105 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.25 | 3.00 | 0.25 |
| Metal Gigantuar | 96 | 2.93 | 2.90 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 0 |
| Gil Snapper Family | 26 | 0.79 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| King Metal Minituar | 22 | 0.67 | 0.70 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| Kitty Ariana Moogle | 25 | 0.76 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0 |
| Ling Moogle | 21 | 0.64 | 0.60 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| Penelo Moogle | 15 | 0.46 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| Sportive Ariana Moogle | 30 | 0.91 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Purple Nail Polish | 372 | 11.34 | 11.30 | 11.25 | 12.00 | 0.75 |
| Purple Lipstick | 346 | 10.55 | 10.60 | 10.50 | 12.00 | 1.5 |
| Purple Hair Spray | 361 | 11.01 | 11.00 | 11.00 | 12.00 | 1 |
| Purple Perfume | 394 | 12.02 | 12.00 | 12.00 | 12.00 | 0 |
| CD Album | 63 | 1.92 | 1.90 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1 |
| Random Megacite | 551 | 16.80 | 16.80 | 16.50 | 17.00 | 0.50 |
| Random Magicite | 852 | 25.98 | 26.00 | 26.00 | 25.00 | 1 |
| Total summoned | 3279 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 0 |
Magicite and Megacite breakdown below:
Table 8
| Magicite Color | Total Pulls | Pull Rate (%) | Estimation (%) |
| Red | 108 | 3.29 | 3.25 |
| Blue | 98 | 2.99 | 3.25 |
| Green | 103 | 3.14 | 3.25 |
| White | 107 | 3.26 | 3.25 |
| Black | 108 | 3.29 | 3.25 |
| Yellow | 128 | 3.90 | 3.25 |
| Orange | 102 | 3.11 | 3.25 |
| Violet | 98 | 2.99 | 3.25 |
| Total Pulled | 852 | 25.98 | 26.00 |
Table 9
| Megacite Color | Total Pulls | Pull Rate (%) | Estimation (%) |
| Red | 63 | 1.92 | 3.25 |
| Blue | 68 | 2.07 | 3.25 |
| Green | 63 | 1.92 | 3.25 |
| White | 64 | 1.95 | 3.25 |
| Black | 65 | 1.98 | 3.25 |
| Yellow | 78 | 2.38 | 3.25 |
| Orange | 75 | 2.29 | 3.25 |
| Violet | 75 | 2.29 | 3.25 |
| Total Pulled | 551 | 16.80 | 16.50 |
As expected, combining the two data sets averages out what I said about the two individually a bit (i.e. for example, instead of the sum of the Absolute Difference column being 9 or 7, it's not 7.5, and the differences are more averaged out to a more believable amount.)
Here's a more compact comparison between my main account, alt account, main + alt account, and the Wiki's findings1 :
Table 10
| Name | Main Account Estimation (%) | Alt Account Estimation (%) | Main + Alt Account Estimation (%) | Wiki's Estimation (%) |
| King Gil Snapper | 3.50 | 2.75 | 3.25 | 3.00 |
| Metal Gigantuar | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Gil Snapper Family | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.50 |
| King Metal Minituar | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.50 |
| Kitty Ariana Moogle | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| Ling Moogle | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 0.50 |
| Penelo Moogle | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| Sportive Ariana Moogle | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Purple Nail Polish | 11.00 | 11.75 | 11.25 | 12.00 |
| Purple Lipstick | 10.50 | 10.75 | 10.50 | 12.00 |
| Purple Hair Spray | 10.75 | 11.50 | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| Purple Perfume | 12.00 | 11.50 | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| CD Album | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Random Megacite | 16.50 | 17.50 | 16.50 | 17.00 |
| Random Magicite | 26.75 | 24.25 | 26.00 | 25.00 |
| Total summoned | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
Both accounts individually and together have very similar numbers compared to what the cumulative data from the Wiki determined were the possible pull rates. Both accounts together are closer to the Wiki's numbers which might be due to just having a larger pool of pulls in general.
Here's a comparison of the drop types for the last few raids (based off of Wiki's numbers1 2 3 4 ) :
Table 11
| Summon Categories | Anniversary Raid (%) | NieR Raid (%) | The Shadow Lord Invades (%) | Dark Symphony (%) |
| Units (Non Moogle/Enhancement) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| TMR Moogles | 0 | 2.5 | 0 | 2 |
| Enhancement Units | 15.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 7 |
| Materials | 61.5 | 49.5 | 82.00 | 49 |
| Magi/Megacite | 20 | 39.5 | 10.50 | 42 |
It seems that over time we've gotten less TMR moogles, less actual units like Minfilia and Adam, less enhancement units like the Cactuars and Gil Snappers, and more materials and magicite. It fluctuates a bit between raids but that appears to be the general trend. I would like to update this with numbers from raids even further back such as the Ifrit, Bahamut, and Titan raids, but I couldn't find data to use for them. I think with statistics for those raids, we would have a better idea of how the summon pool has shifted.
It seems the raids are providing us with less TMRs in general, as well as less usable units from the raid. It's worth noting, however, that this raid gave us Sportive Ariana so we did get one free unit, she just wasn't from the raid. (It's also worth noting that she's a semi decent tank for anyone who wants to try her out. She's no WoL or Wilhelm or even Snow, but she's not completely useless either.)
All in all, whether the raid pools are getting better or worse is up to subjectivity, but in my personal opinion they'r degraded quite a bit. As someone who's been playing for a long time, I can't make much use of 80%+ of what I pulled since all my espers are maxed and I've plenty for the next espers coming along, and the equipment is mostly useless outside of expedition fodder. I made much better use out of the bigger influx of units and therefore TMRs from past raids. Although for newer players the boost to espers and plenty of equipment might actually be more useful than a TMR or two (they would inherently get less since they cannot grind ELT and possibly PRO). So your mileage may vary.
I'll leave this space open for anyone else who wants to contribute any data they've recorded:
Here we have a data contribution from Jack_Mikeson
| Name | Total Pulls | Pull Rate (%) | Estimation (%) | Skittlessour's Estimation (%) | Wiki's Estimation (%) |
| King Gil Snapper | 116 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.25 | 3.0 |
| Metal Gigantuar | 110 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Gil Snapper Family | 20 | 0.61 | 0.60 | 0.75 | 0.50 |
| King Metal Minituar | 25 | 0.76 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.50 |
| Kitty Ariana Moogle | 20 | 0.61 | 0.60 | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| Ling Moogle | 28 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.50 |
| Penelo Moogle | 13 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| Sportive Ariana Moogle | 28 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 1.0 | 0.50 |
| Purple Nail Polish | 357 | 10.9 | 10.8 | 11.25 | 12.0 |
| Purple Lipstick | 346 | 10.5 | 10.8 | 10.5 | 12.0 |
| Purple Hair Spray | 354 | 10.8 | 10.8 | 11.0 | 12.0 |
| Purple Perfume | 400 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| CD Album | 45 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| Random Megacite | 531 | 16.2 | 16.0 | 16.5 | 17.0 |
| Random Magicite | 890 | 27.1 | 27.0 | 26.0 | 25.0 |
| Total summoned | 3283 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Pretty self explanatory since they went through the trouble of formatting a comparison directly into the table (much appreciated!).
ClinkzZ90 gives us this data:
Did 23x10k Pulls and got similar numbers. 51x 3* Gil, 17x 4* Gil, 78x 3* Exp, 19x 4* Exp.
This means that out of 230,000 coins, or 2,300 summons, this is what they had:
Table 12
| Name | Total Pulls | Pull Rate (%) | Estimation (%) |
| King Gil Snapper | 51 | 2.21 | 2.25 |
| Metal Gigantuar | 78 | 3.39 | 3.50 |
| Gil Snapper Family | 17 | 0.74 | 0.75 |
| King Metal Minituar | 19 | 0.82 | 0.75 |
| Total summoned (Enhancement Units) | 165 | 7.17 | 7.25 |
Do note that while the individual said "23x10k" pulls, this doesn't take into account how many coins the last pull actually had (from 100 to 10,000) so the actual pull rates might fluctuate a bit depending on that, but not my enough to change my estimation. Actually they meant that they did 23 full pulls and an extra one that wasn't a full 10k coins, so the data is precise as far as that's concerned.
This data lines up roughly with what we have in our last two tables above. The Wiki estimated about 7% of the pulls were enhancement units, while here we have 7.25%. Both 3★ units average to about what the average is from the other data sets (~6%) whereas the 4★ units have the same estimation of both of my sample sizes at 0.75% each, but is 50% higher than what the Wiki arrived at (0.5% each).
I really appreciate any and all people who are willing to go through the arduous task of recording their pulls and forming data like this. Especially those who already have maxed out magicite since that's a very lengthy extra step to get the information for.
Finally, below are links to relevant information:
As well as my past related posts
Thank you for taking a look at my post, please voice all comments and concerns either in the comments or send me a PM. If you do so as a reply to this post, to ensure a response give me a Skittlessour tag.
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